'More Realistic' Modelling Of TPP's Effects Predicts 450,000 US Jobs Lost, Contraction Of Economy
from the accelerating-the-global-race-to-the-bottom dept ~ hehe member when back yonder when that lil feller wit the big ears said ...that GIANT sucking sound u's hear IS ALL the JOBS leaving this cuntry ??? ...welll ALL u's dummycocks & republipubes kooks ...it's STILL sucking HUH fuck~in A gotta love u's lesser of 2 evils crowd ...ONLY in amerika u's kooky nutty natery fucked in the heads "regis~terds "voteer's" .... can't fucking figger OUT evil+evil= fucking EVIL ...dip shit & my o my we's ALLLLL head~in down 2 a 5th or 6th RATE CUNTRY humm welcome ta wal mart motherfucker :)
Last week we wrote about a World Bank report that predicted that TPP would produce negligible
boosts to the economies of the US, Australia and Canada. Of course,
that's just one study, and it could be argued that it might be
unrepresentative, or unduly pessimistic. That makes the publication of yet more econometric modelling of what could happen
particularly welcome. It comes from Jerome Capaldo and Alex Izurieta at
Tufts University, and starts off by making an important point that is
too often overlooked when considering other TPP predictions:
The standard model assumes full employment and
invariant income distribution, ruling out the main risks of trade and
financial liberalization. Subject to these assumptions, it finds
positive effects on growth. An important question, therefore, is how
this conclusion changes if those assumptions are dropped.
Assuming that TPP won't change employment levels in any of the
participating nations seems a stretch, not least because previous trade
liberalization has caused sizable job losses, as the new study notes. At
the very least, it means that those using these models to argue in
favor of TPP shouldn't be making any claims about its effects on
employment, since these don't exist by definition. Capaldo and Izurieta
are able to look at how jobs are affected because they use a different
model, which they claim is superior to the one found in most other
studies:
In this paper, we review existing projections of the TPP
and propose alternative ones based on more realistic assumptions about
economic adjustment and income distribution. We start from the trade
projections put forward in the main existing study and explore their
macroeconomic consequences using the United Nations Global Policy Model.
Most of the paper is spent taking a rather critical look at previous
results, and will probably be mostly of interest to economists,
especially academic ones. But the final results of the new calculation
are certainly worth noting:
Given the small changes in net exports, the resulting
changes in GDP growth are mostly projected to be negligible. We present
two sets of growth figures: ten-year totals, which measure the overall
effect of the TPP on growth rates compared to the baseline, and annual
averages, which measure the average changes in growth rates due to the
TPP.
That underlines another point often missed: that the GDP growth figures
quoted by politicians and TPP supporters reflect the overall effect
after ten years. Here's what Capaldo and Izurieta found:
Total ten-year changes in growth rates are projected to
be below one percent, by 2025, in all regions but two. In East Asia and
Latin America, GDP growth is projected to increase by 2.18 percent and
2.84 percent respectively under the TPP. By comparison, during
2005-2015, GDP in the two regions is estimated to have grown by 50
percent and 47 percent respectively.
The US and Japan are projected to suffer net losses of GDP of 0.54
percent and 0.12 percent respectively compared to the baseline
Although those growth figures are worse than previous predictions, they
confirm that TPP's impact on GDPs will be small. What's new in this
paper is an estimation of the agreement's effect on jobs:
While projected employment losses are small compared to
the labor force, they clearly signal an adverse effect of liberalization
not taken into account in full-employment models. In TPP countries, the
largest effect will occur in the US, with approximately 450,000 jobs
lost by 2025. Japan and Canada follow, with approximately 75,000 and
58,000 jobs lost respectively. The smallest loss -- approximately 5,000
jobs -- is projected to occur in New Zealand, where the increase in net
exports is projected to be the largest. Overall, projected job losses in
TPP countries amount to 771,000 jobs.
Also novel is the report's comments about the global effects of TPP:
when analyzed with a model that recognizes the risks of
trade liberalization, the TPP appears to only marginally change
competitiveness among participating countries. Most gains are therefore
obtained at the expense of non-TPP countries.
Globally, the TPP favors competition on labor costs and remuneration of
capital. Depending on the policy choices in non-TPP countries, this may
accelerate the global race to the bottom, increasing downward pressure
on labor incomes in a quest for ever more elusive trade gains.
Although this is just one (more) study, it does seem to confirm the more
gloomy predictions for TPP. It inevitably poses a key question with yet
more force: why exactly are politicians in TPP nations pushing
so hard to ratify a controversial agreement that seems have few
quantifiable benefits, and very considerable costs? ~ hehe maybe JUST maybe "It's" the hiddden A~gen~daaa https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20160119/09463933377/more-realistic-modelling-tpps-effects-predicts-450000-us-jobs-lost-gdp-contraction.shtml
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