Brazil
and China can’t seem to agree on what either country is getting out of
their economic ties. Take this most recent example: China Construction
Bank, a huge state-owned lender, just sunk around $716 million into a
72% stake in Brazil’s Banco Industrial e Comercial, a nearly 19% premium
(paywall) on BicBanco’s current share price. Some might argue that the
move positions CCB to profit from Chinese investment in Brazil. But to
hear the head of another Chinese bank tell it, that might be a naive
move.
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“The ardor for investment in Brazil is fading. Operating in Brazil is a huge challenge,”
Zhang Dongxiang, CEO of Bank of China’s Brazil unit, told Reuters.
“Public opinion sometimes seems to be against foreign investment… as if
it makes local industry less competitive.”
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Zhang
blames his wariness about investment in Brazil on the protectionist
policies of the country’s president, Dilma Rousseff. In an effort to
boost dwindling government coffers, Rousseff has enacted policies such
as taxing foreign-made cars and limiting the land available for purchase
by foreigners.
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Others
companies, like Huawei, are exiting due to Brazil’s slowing growth.
Some two-thirds of Chinese investments in Brazil since 2007–about $70
billion in projects–have either been suspended or have been canceled,
reports Reuters.
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Note that 2012 reflects only first-half data.
Brazilians,
however, generally hold a different view. Local businesses complain
that Chinese companies drag their feet on deals and are excruciatingly
patient negotiators, reports Reuters–or simply never round up the
funding. Many of the projects China has made good on involve Brazil’s
coveted commodities. Starting in 2010, big state-owned enterprises
(SOEs) like Sinopec and Sinochem have amassed plum natural resource
projects.
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The
friction is building. The Chinese acquisition (in a consortium with two
European oil companies) of Brazil’s biggest oilfield sparked violent demonstrations in Rio de Janeiro at the end of October.
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It’s
a similar problem to what China has faced from investing in sub-Saharan
Africa, says Derek Scissors of the American Enterprise Institute, a
think tank. “What happens is you start getting people saying ‘Wait a
minute, we are running a huge trade deficit with China. They are
investing $20 billion and grabbing up all our resources. Are we a
colony?’” Scissors told Reuters.
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Some
of the outrage probably stems from the fact that Chinese investment
hasn’t resulted in deeper trade ties that boost Brazilian manufacturing,
as Brazilians had hoped.
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On
first glance, it might appear that Brazil is ahead, since the country
runs a trade surplus with China. But some 80% of Brazil’s China exports
still come from three commodities: iron ore, oil and soy. China,
meanwhile, has expanded the range of products and services it exports to
Brazil. Lack of growth for Brazilian manufacturers is hurting their
competitiveness; one study shows they’ve lost share to Chinese ones (pdf, p.19) in other markets.
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Despite
the bellyaching on both sides, Chinese investment in Brazil looks set
to continue. China’s state-owned enterprise may be losing interest, but
nimbler private Chinese companies are still seizing opportunities.
Search engine Baidu recently launched in Brazil, months after Lenovo
bought a Brazilian electronics company for $146.5 million. And more
Chinese car brands sell in Brazil than do American or Japanese brands.
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That’s a good thing for both countries, since those companies see value in Brazil beyond its natural resources.
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