Monday, October 14, 2013

senkaku-7: An independent Okinawa: Japan’s worst-case scenario

Source: Japan News
In May, a private-sector study group advocating the independence of Okinawa Prefecture from Japan was formed. The group is led by Ryukoku University Prof. Yasukatsu Matsushima, a native of Ishigaki Island, Okinawa Prefecture, and its secretariat is based at Okinawa International University.
The group, known as the “comprehensive study group on the independence of Ryukyuans,” has about 150 members, including House of Representatives and Social Democratic Party member Kantoku Teruya, who repre-sents Okinawa Constituency No. 2.
Its charter states: “Ryukyu has been under the rule of Japan and the United States. It is necessary that we Ryukyuans declare independence from Japan, have all military bases withdrawn from our islands, and build the islands of peace and hope with our own hands.”
The local media have been generally positive toward the group’s agenda.
The Ryukyu Shimpo wrote in a May 17th editorial: “We cannot help feeling that we are now entering a new period of history. For the happiness of the Okinawan people, it is vital to expand the people’s right to self-determination.”
It cannot be said that many Okinawans currently want independence. Yet if Japan loses the Senkaku Islands, an independent Okinawa may no longer be a pipe dream.

What does it mean for Japan?
This spring, the Rebuild Japan Initiative Foundation, whose chairman is Yoichi Funabashi, a former editor-in-chief of The Asahi Shimbun, published a book titled “Nihon Saiaku no Shinario: Kokonotsu no Shikaku” (The Worst-case Scenario for Japan: Nine blind spots) which looks at the national crisis that Japan could face.
Taking up the Senkaku issue, the book imagines a scenario in which a Chinese group disguised as fishermen and armed with automatic rifles land on the Senkakus and occupy them. Under the worst-case scenario, the Japanese government would be unable to remove them and fail in diplomatic talks, while the Chinese group would set up its own facilities on the islands, effectively putting them under China’s control.

On the assumption of such a scenario, the book hypothesizes the impact of Japan’s loss of the Senkakus as follows: “As China has turned the western Pacific Ocean into its backyard, the possibility of a clash with U.S. forces has naturally risen. Caught between the United States and China, Okinawa decides to become a neutral actor.”
This means that Okinawa, where there is a sense of crisis over the escalating U.S.-China confrontation, has come to distance itself even from Japan. The book thus warns that for Japan to lose the Senkakus, would be tantamount to also losing Okinawa.
But a sense of crisis has not yet taken hold more widely within Japan. Some have even made such assertions as, “We can make concessions over the Senkaku issue.”
Former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, during a June 25th appearance on a Hong Kong TV program, said, “From the Chinese side’s perspective, it is inevitable to think that the Senkakus were stolen by Japan.”
That same evening, Hatoyama provided a smooth explanation of the basis for his remarks to the reporters who gathered in front of his house in Tokyo.
“It’s written in the Potsdam Declaration, isn’t it? It says that Hokkaido, Honshu, Shikoku and Kyushu are inherent territories of Japan. Since Japan was defeated in the war, they became inherent territories,” Hatoyama said.
In fact, the Potsdam Declaration states that “Japanese sovereignty shall be limited to the islands of Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku and such minor islands as we [the Allies] determine.”
Yet the treaty does not specify which islands are included among the “minor islands.” According to Hatoyama’s viewpoint, it is unclear which country even Okinawa, let alone the Senkaku Islands, belongs to.
China, which claims sovereignty over the Senkakus, has also been paying attention to the notion of “an independent Okinawa.” The Global Times, a daily Chinese tabloid focusing on international issues under the auspices of the People’s Daily—an organ of the Communist Party of China—has repeatedly taken up the theory on its editorial pages.
“China must raise the Ryukyu issue as it remains historically unresolved,” stated a May 11th editorial.
“Okinawa is justified in seeking independence. The Chinese side must support such moves to the greatest extent permitted under international law,” a May 16th editorial said.
The Japanese government believes these assertions by the Chinese media are designed to put pressure on Okinawa, where U.S. forces have stationed key Asian bases.
While remaining wary of China’s moves, public security authorities are also keeping a close eye on the relationship between those in favor of Okinawa’s independence and China. The hidden maneuvering of Japan and China over the Senkakus has put Okinawa in a tight spot.

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