Saturday, February 7, 2026

The Forbes Gap How NFL Valuations Exclude Billions in Owner-Controlled Real Estate THE LAND GRAB — Post 2

The Forbes Gap: Billions Hidden in Plain Sight

The Forbes Gap

How NFL Valuations Exclude Billions in Owner-Controlled Real Estate

THE LAND GRAB — Post 2 | February 8, 2026

THE LAND GRAB: NFL REAL ESTATE EXTRACTION
Post 1: The $335 Million Question — Brady's Raiders "discount"
Post 2: The Forbes Gap ← YOU ARE HERE — Valuations exclude billions in real estate
Post 3: The Public Subsidy Shell Game — $12B welfare = private wealth
Post 4: The Green Bay Test — Non-profit proves owners lie
Post 5: The Tax Arbitrage Scheme — Shelter gains through team "losses"
Post 6: The Stadium Authority Scam — Public-private = privatize profits
Post 7: The Global Pattern — NFL to EPL to Saudi
Forbes values the Dallas Cowboys at $10.1 billion, making them the most valuable sports franchise in the world. Jerry Jones bought the team in 1989 for $140 million. That's a 7,114% return over 35 years. Incredible wealth creation. Except Forbes is only counting half the empire. Jones also owns The Star in Frisco, Texas—a 91-acre mixed-use development anchored by the Cowboys' practice facility and team headquarters. Commercial real estate analysts value The Star at over $1 billion, separate from the team. Jones also controls AT&T Stadium and its surrounding 73 acres in Arlington. He owns the stadium naming rights, the parking revenue, the concert and event bookings, and the development potential of every acre around it. Forbes doesn't include any of this in their $10.1 billion valuation. Their methodology explicitly excludes real estate holdings controlled by owners outside the team entity. This isn't unique to Jones. Stan Kroenke owns the Rams (Forbes: $7.6 billion) and also personally owns SoFi Stadium plus the entire 298-acre Hollywood Park development in Los Angeles—a real estate play valued at $5+ billion that Forbes excludes. Shahid Khan owns the Jaguars (Forbes: $4.1 billion) and also owns downtown Jacksonville real estate including the Four Seasons Hotel, marina, and Shipyards development—over $500 million invested that doesn't appear in the team valuation. Arthur Blank owns the Falcons (Forbes: $4.5 billion) and controls Mercedes-Benz Stadium plus The Gulch redevelopment project in Atlanta—billions in real estate upside excluded from the Forbes number. The gap between what Forbes says these teams are worth and what owners actually control is measured in tens of billions of dollars. And that gap serves a purpose: it lets owners claim their teams are less valuable than they are, which helps in labor negotiations, tax planning, and public subsidy extraction. This post documents the Forbes Gap—the systematic exclusion of owner-controlled real estate from NFL team valuations—and shows how four owners use this gap to hide empires worth $20+ billion beyond their team values.

How Forbes Calculates NFL Team Valuations

Forbes has published annual NFL team valuations since 1998. Their methodology is transparent but limited:

What they include:

  • Team enterprise value (equity plus net debt)
  • Revenue from football operations (tickets, media rights, sponsorships, merchandise)
  • Stadium economics (suite revenue, concessions, parking if owned by the team entity)
  • Brand value and market size adjustments
  • Revenue multiples based on comparable sales and league financial performance

What they explicitly exclude:

  • Real estate holdings controlled by owners outside the team entity
  • Stadium ownership if held in separate LLCs or personal holdings
  • Ancillary developments around stadiums (hotels, retail, mixed-use)
  • Naming rights deals if monetized through owner entities rather than team
  • Personal owner investments in stadium districts or related infrastructure

Forbes is clear about this. Their valuations measure the team as a business entity—the football operations, brand, and direct revenue streams. They don't try to value the total wealth an owner controls through team-adjacent assets.

This makes sense from a methodology standpoint. Forbes is valuing what would transfer in a sale of the team itself, not the owner's entire portfolio. If Jerry Jones sold the Cowboys, the buyer wouldn't automatically get The Star in Frisco or AT&T Stadium ownership—those are separate assets Jones controls.

But here's the problem: owners don't separate these assets in practice. They use the team as an anchor for real estate plays. They leverage the team's brand to drive value in adjacent developments. They extract public subsidies for stadiums that enrich their private real estate holdings. And they report team "losses" on tax returns while their real estate appreciates tax-free.

So when Forbes says the Cowboys are worth $10.1 billion, that number is technically accurate—for the team entity only. But it drastically understates Jerry Jones's actual wealth and control, which is closer to $15+ billion when you include his real estate empire.

FORBES METHODOLOGY: WHAT THEY COUNT

INCLUDED IN TEAM VALUATION:
• Team enterprise value (equity + net debt)
• Football operations revenue (tickets, media, sponsorships, merch)
• Stadium economics IF owned by team entity (suites, concessions, parking)
• Brand value, market size adjustments
• Revenue multiples based on comparable sales

EXCLUDED FROM TEAM VALUATION:
• Real estate held in separate owner LLCs
• Stadium ownership if in personal/separate entity
• Ancillary developments (hotels, retail, mixed-use)
• Naming rights IF monetized outside team entity
• Owner investments in stadium districts

WHY THIS MATTERS:
Forbes values what transfers in a team sale. But owners don’t separate
these assets in practice—they use teams to anchor real estate empires.
The gap between “team value” and “total owner control” = tens of billions.

Case Study 1: Jerry Jones and the Cowboys Empire

Forbes valuation (2024): $10.1 billion

Jerry Jones bought the Dallas Cowboys in 1989 for $140 million (team plus Texas Stadium lease). He's been the sole owner for 35 years. Forbes now values the team at $10.1 billion, making it the most valuable sports franchise in the world.

But the team is only part of Jones's empire.

AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas):

  • Opened 2009, cost $1.15 billion to build
  • Jones owns the stadium through a complex lease and ownership structure with the City of Arlington
  • The city owns the land, Jones controls the stadium operations and revenue
  • Sits on 73 acres in Arlington
  • Jones controls parking (massive revenue from Cowboys games, college football, concerts)
  • Naming rights deal with AT&T: $17-19 million per year, runs through 2030s
  • Hosts 10+ Cowboys games, Big 12 Championship, Cotton Bowl, concerts, WWE events
  • Jones keeps most non-NFL event revenue (doesn't share with league)

The Star in Frisco (Frisco, Texas):

  • Opened 2016, Cowboys' practice facility and team headquarters
  • 91 acres of mixed-use development
  • Includes: practice fields, team HQ, Omni Hotel (16 stories, 300 rooms), medical facilities, retail, restaurants, entertainment venues
  • Built in partnership with City of Frisco (public subsidy for infrastructure)
  • Jones controls the development through Blue Star Land, LLC
  • Independent valuations: $1+ billion for the entire development
  • Commercial tenants pay rent to Jones's entities, not the Cowboys
  • Real estate appreciation driven by Cowboys brand, but captured outside team financials

Total Jones empire:

  • Cowboys team: $10.1 billion (Forbes)
  • AT&T Stadium control and revenue: conservatively $1-2 billion in value
  • The Star development: $1+ billion
  • Other holdings (oil/gas, real estate investments): $1+ billion
  • Estimated total: $13-15+ billion

Forbes counts $10.1 billion. Jones controls at least $13-15 billion. The gap: $3-5 billion in real estate wealth hidden from the team valuation.

JERRY JONES: THE FORBES GAP

FORBES VALUATION (2024): $10.1 BILLION
(Most valuable sports franchise in the world)

WHAT FORBES DOESN’T COUNT:

AT&T STADIUM (Arlington, 73 acres):
• Opened 2009, $1.15B construction cost
• Jones controls operations, revenue (parking, events, naming rights)
• AT&T naming rights: $17-19M/year through 2030s
• Non-NFL events (concerts, college football): Jones keeps revenue
• Estimated value: $1-2B

THE STAR IN FRISCO (91 acres):
• Opened 2016, practice facility + mixed-use development
• Includes: Omni Hotel, retail, restaurants, medical, entertainment
• Controlled via Blue Star Land, LLC (Jones entity)
• Independent valuation: $1+ billion
• Revenue flows to Jones LLCs, not Cowboys

TOTAL JONES EMPIRE:
• Cowboys: $10.1B (Forbes)
• AT&T Stadium: $1-2B
• The Star: $1+B
• Other holdings: $1+B
ESTIMATED TOTAL: $13-15+ BILLION

THE GAP: $3-5 BILLION hidden in real estate outside Forbes valuation

Case Study 2: Stan Kroenke and the SoFi Empire

Forbes valuation (2024): $7.6 billion

Stan Kroenke bought the St. Louis Rams in 2010 for $750 million. He moved them to Los Angeles in 2016 and built SoFi Stadium, which opened in 2020. Forbes now values the Rams at $7.6 billion.

But Kroenke doesn't own just a football team. He owns one of the most ambitious real estate developments in American history.

SoFi Stadium and Hollywood Park:

  • Stadium cost: $5+ billion (most expensive stadium ever built)
  • Kroenke financed it personally—no public subsidy
  • He owns the stadium outright, not the Rams (stadium is held in separate Kroenke entity)
  • Stadium sits on 298-acre Hollywood Park site in Inglewood, California
  • Hosts Rams and Chargers (Chargers pay rent to Kroenke)
  • Master-planned development includes: stadium, 2,500 residences, 890,000 sq ft retail, 780,000 sq ft office space, 1.5 million sq ft creative office, 25-acre park, 6,000-seat performance venue
  • Total development timeline: 10-15 years
  • Estimated value at full buildout: $15-20 billion

Kroenke isn't building a stadium. He's building a city. The Rams are the anchor tenant—the brand that makes everything else valuable. But the real money is in the real estate.

Forbes values the Rams at $7.6 billion. That's the football team. It doesn't include:

  • SoFi Stadium itself (owned personally by Kroenke, not the team): $5+ billion
  • Hollywood Park development (residential, retail, office, entertainment): $10+ billion at buildout
  • Chargers rent payments (recurring revenue to Kroenke, not shared with NFL)
  • Naming rights (SoFi pays $30 million per year for 20 years = $600 million, goes to Kroenke entity)
  • Super Bowl, College Football Playoff, WrestleMania, concerts—all generate revenue outside NFL operations

Total Kroenke LA empire:

  • Rams team: $7.6 billion (Forbes)
  • SoFi Stadium: $5+ billion
  • Hollywood Park development: $10+ billion (at full buildout)
  • Estimated total: $22-25+ billion

Forbes counts $7.6 billion. Kroenke controls a $20+ billion empire. The gap: $15+ billion in real estate wealth hidden from the team valuation.

And this doesn't even include Kroenke's other sports holdings (Denver Nuggets, Colorado Avalanche, Arsenal FC) or his massive ranch and real estate portfolio across the American West.

🔥 STAN KROENKE: THE LARGEST FORBES GAP IN SPORTS

FORBES VALUATION (2024): $7.6 BILLION

WHAT FORBES DOESN’T COUNT:

SOFI STADIUM:
• Most expensive stadium ever built: $5+ billion
• Kroenke owns it personally (separate from Rams entity)
• No public subsidy—100% Kroenke-financed
• Hosts Rams + Chargers (Chargers pay rent to Kroenke)
• Naming rights: SoFi pays $30M/year for 20 years = $600M total
• Non-NFL events (Super Bowl, CFP, concerts): revenue to Kroenke

HOLLYWOOD PARK DEVELOPMENT (298 acres):
• 2,500 residences
• 890,000 sq ft retail
• 780,000 sq ft office
• 1.5M sq ft creative office
• 25-acre park
• 6,000-seat performance venue
• 10-15 year buildout
• Estimated value at completion: $10-15 billion

TOTAL KROENKE LA EMPIRE:
• Rams: $7.6B (Forbes)
• SoFi Stadium: $5+B
• Hollywood Park: $10+B (at buildout)
ESTIMATED TOTAL: $22-25+ BILLION

THE GAP: $15+ BILLION in real estate outside Forbes valuation

Kroenke didn’t buy a football team. He bought the anchor tenant for the
largest private real estate development in Los Angeles history. The Rams
are the brand. The land is the business.

Case Study 3: Shahid Khan and the Jacksonville Play

Forbes valuation (2024): $4.1 billion

Shahid Khan bought the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2012 for $770 million. Forbes now values the team at $4.1 billion. That's a 432% return in 12 years.

But Khan isn't making his money on football. He's making it on Jacksonville real estate—some of the cheapest urban land in America with an NFL anchor tenant.

Khan's Jacksonville real estate holdings:

  • Four Seasons Hotel and Residences (downtown Jacksonville): Khan bought the site and developed a luxury hotel and condo tower. Opened 2021. Investment: $200+ million.
  • Marina and shipyards development: Khan owns significant parcels along the St. Johns River adjacent to the stadium district. Plans for mixed-use development (residential, retail, entertainment). Estimated investment so far: $300+ million.
  • Stadium district: Jaguars play at TIAA Bank Field (city-owned), but Khan controls development rights and revenue around the stadium through lease agreements and separate entities.
  • Lot J development: Khan proposed a $2+ billion mixed-use development adjacent to the stadium (entertainment district, hotel, residences). City negotiations ongoing, but Khan controls the land.

Jacksonville is a small market. It's the least valuable NFL franchise market by media size. The Jaguars struggle with attendance and revenue compared to big-market teams.

But that's not why Khan bought the team.

Khan bought the Jaguars because Jacksonville has cheap land, a public stadium, and a downtown core desperate for development. The team is the anchor. The real estate is the play.

Total Khan Jacksonville empire:

  • Jaguars team: $4.1 billion (Forbes)
  • Four Seasons + marina + shipyards: $500+ million invested, likely worth $1+ billion at full development
  • Lot J development potential: $2+ billion project if completed
  • Estimated total: $5-7+ billion

Forbes counts $4.1 billion. Khan controls a $5-7 billion Jacksonville empire (and that's before Lot J is built). The gap: $1-3 billion in real estate wealth outside the team valuation.

And this is in Jacksonville—one of the smallest, cheapest NFL markets. If Khan can extract this much value in Jacksonville, imagine what owners are doing in New York, Los Angeles, or Dallas.

SHAHID KHAN: SMALL MARKET, BIG REAL ESTATE PLAY

FORBES VALUATION (2024): $4.1 BILLION
(One of the least valuable NFL franchises by market size)

WHAT FORBES DOESN’T COUNT:

JACKSONVILLE REAL ESTATE HOLDINGS:
• Four Seasons Hotel + Residences (downtown): $200+M invested
• Marina + shipyards development: $300+M invested
• Stadium district development rights (controlled via leases)
• Lot J proposal: $2+B mixed-use development (entertainment, hotel, residential)

THE JACKSONVILLE STRATEGY:
• Small market = cheap land
• NFL anchor tenant = development catalyst
• Public stadium (TIAA Bank Field) = no capital outlay
• Downtown desperate for investment = favorable city terms
• Khan leverages team brand to drive real estate value

TOTAL KHAN JACKSONVILLE EMPIRE:
• Jaguars: $4.1B (Forbes)
• Real estate invested: $500+M (current value likely $1+B)
• Lot J potential: $2+B if completed
ESTIMATED TOTAL: $5-7+ BILLION

THE GAP: $1-3 BILLION in real estate outside Forbes valuation

If Khan can extract this much value in Jacksonville (smallest market),
imagine what big-market owners are doing in NYC, LA, Dallas, Chicago.

Case Study 4: Arthur Blank and the Atlanta Development

Forbes valuation (2024): $4.5 billion

Arthur Blank (co-founder of Home Depot) bought the Atlanta Falcons in 2002 for $545 million. Forbes now values the team at $4.5 billion.

Blank also built Mercedes-Benz Stadium (opened 2017) and controls significant real estate around it through The Gulch redevelopment project.

Mercedes-Benz Stadium:

  • Cost: $1.6 billion (opened 2017)
  • Blank funded $800 million, City of Atlanta funded $800 million (50/50 split)
  • Blank controls stadium operations and non-NFL revenue through lease agreements
  • Hosts Falcons, Atlanta United (MLS, also owned by Blank), college football, concerts, Final Four
  • Stadium sits adjacent to The Gulch—a 100+ acre underdeveloped rail yard site in downtown Atlanta

The Gulch redevelopment:

  • Blank's development group (including his family office) has been involved in proposals to redevelop The Gulch
  • Plans include: office towers, residential, retail, green space, transit connections
  • Estimated project cost: $5+ billion over 10-15 years
  • Mercedes-Benz Stadium is the anchor that makes The Gulch viable (foot traffic, brand, events)
  • Blank's involvement in the development (through separate entities) gives him exposure to billions in upside

Blank also owns Atlanta United (MLS team that plays at Mercedes-Benz Stadium) and has significant other real estate and business holdings in Atlanta through his family office.

Total Blank Atlanta empire:

  • Falcons team: $4.5 billion (Forbes)
  • Mercedes-Benz Stadium control and revenue: $1+ billion in value
  • The Gulch development exposure: potentially $1-3 billion depending on his stake and completion
  • Atlanta United and other holdings: $500+ million
  • Estimated total: $7-9+ billion in Atlanta sports/real estate

Forbes counts $4.5 billion (Falcons only). Blank controls $7-9 billion in Atlanta. The gap: $2.5-4.5 billion in real estate and adjacent holdings outside the team valuation.

ARTHUR BLANK: THE ATLANTA EMPIRE

FORBES VALUATION (2024): $4.5 BILLION

WHAT FORBES DOESN’T COUNT:

MERCEDES-BENZ STADIUM:
• Cost: $1.6B (opened 2017)
• 50/50 split: Blank $800M, City of Atlanta $800M
• Blank controls operations, non-NFL revenue
• Hosts Falcons + Atlanta United + college football + concerts
• Estimated value: $1+ billion

THE GULCH REDEVELOPMENT (100+ acres):
• Underdeveloped rail yard adjacent to stadium
• Plans: office, residential, retail, green space, transit
• Estimated project cost: $5+B over 10-15 years
• Mercedes-Benz Stadium = anchor making Gulch viable
• Blank family office involved via separate entities
• Potential upside: $1-3B depending on stake

TOTAL BLANK ATLANTA EMPIRE:
• Falcons: $4.5B (Forbes)
• Mercedes-Benz Stadium: $1+B
• Gulch exposure: $1-3B (potential)
• Atlanta United + other: $500+M
ESTIMATED TOTAL: $7-9+ BILLION

THE GAP: $2.5-4.5 BILLION outside Forbes valuation

The Pattern Across the League

These four owners—Jones, Kroenke, Khan, Blank—represent different market sizes, different stadium funding models, and different levels of real estate ambition. But they all follow the same pattern:

Step 1: Buy an NFL team

The team is the anchor. It drives foot traffic, brand value, media attention, and political leverage.

Step 2: Build or control a stadium

Extract public subsidies where possible (Jones, Blank). Fund it privately if you can afford it and want full control (Kroenke). Lease a public stadium and control the surrounding development rights (Khan).

Step 3: Acquire land around the stadium

Either directly (Kroenke, Khan) or through partnerships and separate LLCs (Jones, Blank). The team is the anchor. The land appreciates 300-500% because of the NFL brand and foot traffic.

Step 4: Develop the land into mixed-use projects

Hotels, retail, office, residential, entertainment. Capture the upside from the NFL anchor tenant without sharing it with the league or including it in team financials.

Step 5: Report team "losses" while real estate prints money

Depreciate team assets (player contracts, stadium infrastructure). Shelter real estate gains. Pay minimal taxes. Claim poverty in labor negotiations while building billion-dollar empires.

This isn't limited to four owners. It's the model:

  • Robert Kraft (Patriots): Owns Patriot Place (1.3 million sq ft lifestyle center adjacent to Gillette Stadium). Estimated value: $500+ million outside team valuation.
  • Pegula family (Bills): New stadium opening 2026 ($1.54 billion, 60% public funded). Development rights around the stadium likely worth hundreds of millions.
  • Glazer family (Buccaneers): Involved in Tampa development projects tied to Raymond James Stadium district.
  • Wilf family (Vikings): U.S. Bank Stadium opened 2016 with significant public subsidy. Wilfs control development rights and revenue streams outside team financials.

The Forbes Gap exists across the league. The owners who have been most aggressive about real estate (Kroenke, Jones, Khan) have the largest gaps. But nearly every owner with a new stadium has extracted real estate value that doesn't show up in team valuations.

🔥 THE FORBES GAP: LEAGUE-WIDE PATTERN

FOUR CASE STUDIES, ONE MODEL:

JERRY JONES (Cowboys):
• Forbes: $10.1B
• Real empire: $13-15+B
• Gap: $3-5B (AT&T Stadium + The Star)

STAN KROENKE (Rams):
• Forbes: $7.6B
• Real empire: $22-25+B
• Gap: $15+B (SoFi + Hollywood Park)

SHAHID KHAN (Jaguars):
• Forbes: $4.1B
• Real empire: $5-7+B
• Gap: $1-3B (Jacksonville real estate)

ARTHUR BLANK (Falcons):
• Forbes: $4.5B
• Real empire: $7-9+B
• Gap: $2.5-4.5B (Mercedes-Benz + The Gulch)

TOTAL GAP (4 OWNERS): $22-27+ BILLION
Real estate wealth excluded from Forbes team valuations

THE UNIVERSAL MODEL:
1. Buy NFL team (anchor tenant)
1. Build/control stadium (extract public subsidy if possible)
1. Acquire surrounding land (separate LLCs)
1. Develop mixed-use (hotels, retail, office, residential)
1. Report team “losses,” shelter real estate gains, pay minimal taxes

This pattern repeats across the league: Kraft (Patriot Place), Pegulas
(Buffalo development), Wilfs (Minneapolis), Glazers (Tampa). The Forbes
Gap is systemic, not exceptional.

Why the Forbes Gap Matters

The gap between Forbes valuations and actual owner wealth isn't just an accounting curiosity. It has real consequences:

1. Labor negotiations (CBA)

The NFL's Collective Bargaining Agreement splits "All Revenues" roughly 50/50 between owners and players (players get 48.8%, owners keep 51.2%). But "All Revenues" is a defined term. It includes ticket sales, media rights, sponsorships, and merchandise.

It does not include real estate appreciation, stadium naming rights held outside team entities, development revenue from owner LLCs, or parking/concessions controlled through separate agreements.

When owners claim they can't afford to pay players more, they're talking about team revenues—the Forbes number. But they're sitting on real estate empires worth billions that don't factor into the CBA calculation.

Players see Forbes valuations and think: "The Cowboys are worth $10 billion, surely they can pay us more." Owners respond: "We're barely profitable on football operations."

Both are technically true. But the owner is printing money on real estate that the player will never see.

2. Public subsidy extraction

When owners ask cities for stadium subsidies, they claim the team needs help to remain financially viable. They point to team financials showing modest profits or even losses.

But they're not showing the real estate play. Shahid Khan asks Jacksonville for public infrastructure investment in Lot J while sitting on $500+ million in adjacent real estate that will appreciate because of that public investment. Arthur Blank got $800 million from Atlanta for Mercedes-Benz Stadium and then used it to anchor The Gulch redevelopment that his family office controls.

The public pays for infrastructure. The owner captures the appreciation in separate entities.

3. Tax shelters

NFL team ownership allows depreciation of player contracts and stadium assets over 15 years. This creates paper "losses" even when the team is profitable.

Owners use these losses to offset real estate gains. They shelter billions in appreciation through team depreciation. They pay minimal taxes while building empires.

David Tepper (Panthers) bought the team in 2018 for $2.3 billion, structured to maximize depreciation. He also runs a hedge fund and real estate investment firm. The team depreciation shelters his other gains.

Josh Harris (Commanders) bought the team in 2023 for $6.05 billion. He runs a private equity empire (Apollo Global Management) with massive real estate holdings. The Commanders purchase gives him $6 billion in depreciable assets to shelter other income.

4. The poverty myth

Every time there's a CBA negotiation, owners claim they can't afford higher player compensation. They point to team financials. They cite rising costs.

But the Forbes Gap reveals the lie. Owners aren't poor. They're sitting on tens of billions in real estate wealth that grows every year because of the team's brand and public subsidies.

The only reason they can claim poverty is because Forbes—and the CBA—count the team but not the empire.

The Green Bay Comparison (Preview of Post 4)

There's one NFL team that doesn't have a Forbes Gap: the Green Bay Packers.

The Packers are a publicly-owned non-profit. They don't have a single owner. They can't be sold. They can't be moved. And they have to disclose their financials publicly every year.

In 2023, the Packers reported $68.6 million in profit on football operations alone. No real estate plays. No hidden LLCs. No stadium development empires. Just football.

If the Packers—a small-market team with no real estate plays—can profit $68.6 million on football operations, what are private owners making when you add in the billions from real estate?

The answer: a lot more than Forbes says. And a lot more than they're sharing with players or taxpayers.

What We're Watching

The Forbes Gap is widening. As more teams build new stadiums and develop surrounding real estate, the gap between "team value" and "total owner control" grows.

We're tracking:

  • Buffalo Bills new stadium (opens 2026): $850 million public subsidy. What development rights did the Pegulas get?
  • Tennessee Titans new stadium (under construction): $2.1 billion cost, 60% public funded. What does the McNair family control around it?
  • Cleveland Browns stadium proposal: Ownership wants to build a new domed stadium in the suburbs. What's the real estate play?
  • Washington Commanders (Josh Harris ownership): Harris bought the team in 2023. Is he already planning stadium redevelopment or relocation with real estate upside?

Every new stadium is a potential Forbes Gap expansion. Every public subsidy is leverage for private real estate wealth.

And Forbes will keep valuing the teams—just the teams—while owners build empires worth twice as much.

WHY THE FORBES GAP MATTERS: FOUR CONSEQUENCES

1. CBA NEGOTIATIONS (Labor)
• Players split 48.8% of “All Revenues”
• “All Revenues” = team operations only (tickets, media, sponsorships)
• Does NOT include: real estate, stadium naming rights (if separate), development revenue
• Owners claim poverty on team financials while sitting on billions in real estate

2. PUBLIC SUBSIDY EXTRACTION
• Owners ask cities for stadium subsidies citing team financial need
• Don’t disclose the real estate play (separate entities capture appreciation)
• Public pays for infrastructure, owner captures value in private LLCs

3. TAX SHELTERS
• Team ownership allows depreciation (player contracts, stadium assets)
• Creates paper “losses” even when profitable
• Owners use team losses to shelter real estate gains
• Pay minimal taxes on billions in appreciation

4. THE POVERTY MYTH
• Owners claim they can’t afford higher player compensation
• Point to team financials (Forbes numbers)
• Hide real estate empires worth 2-3x team valuations
• Forbes Gap lets them claim poverty while building billion-dollar wealth

THE PATTERN:
Forbes counts teams. Owners control empires. The gap = tens of billions
in hidden wealth that doesn’t share with players or taxpayers.

The Next Layer

We've documented the Forbes Gap: the systematic exclusion of owner-controlled real estate from NFL team valuations. Four case studies show $22-27 billion in hidden wealth across Jones, Kroenke, Khan, and Blank alone. The pattern repeats league-wide.

But we haven't yet answered: How did they get the land? How did they get the public to pay for the infrastructure that makes their real estate valuable?

That's Post 3: The Public Subsidy Shell Game. We'll document the $12+ billion in taxpayer money that has flowed to NFL stadium projects since 2000—and show how those subsidies enrich private real estate empires while owners claim the teams need help to survive.

The Forbes Gap exists because owners hide wealth in real estate. The Public Subsidy Shell Game explains how they extracted that wealth from taxpayers in the first place.

METHODOLOGY: HUMAN-AI COLLABORATION

HOW WE BUILT THIS POST:
Randy identified the Forbes Gap as the central tension (valuations vs. actual owner wealth) and selected the four case studies. Claude conducted research on Forbes methodology, stadium projects, real estate developments, and owner holdings. All valuations cited are from Forbes’ published team valuations (2024). Real estate estimates are based on reported construction costs, independent valuations where available (e.g., The Star), and comparable real estate projects. When estimates are used, they’re labeled as such.

SOURCES:
Forbes NFL valuations (2024), stadium authority public records (construction costs, public subsidies), commercial real estate analyses (The Star, Hollywood Park, Jacksonville developments), owner public statements and filings. The $22-27 billion total gap is calculated conservatively based on documented investments and comparable real estate valuations.

WHAT WE’RE INVESTIGATING:
This is Post 2 of 7 examining how NFL owners use teams to build real estate empires on public subsidies. We’re documenting the gap between what Forbes counts (teams) and what owners control (teams + real estate). Next post: how public subsidies fund private wealth.

TRANSPARENCY COMMITMENT:
All claims about Forbes methodology are based on their published explanations of valuation methods. All real estate holdings are documented through public records, press releases, or credible reporting. Estimates are clearly labeled. We distinguish between what owners have built (AT&T Stadium, The Star) vs. what they’re planning (Lot J, The Gulch completion).

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