The Four Battlegrounds
What the 2027 CBA Fight Is Really About
The NFL-ESPN Series, Post 7 (Series Finale) | February 2, 2026
Post 1: The Equity Heist — ESPN equity classification ($1.46B at stake)
Post 2: The Biometric Betting Machine — Player data ownership ($300M+/year at stake)
Post 3: The 2027 Strike — NFLPA crisis, media timeline, leverage analysis
Post 4: The Genius Problem — Infrastructure dependency, the 8.7% leash
Post 5: The 32 Equity Problem — Venture fund returns ($2.1B+ at stake)
Post 6: The Revolving Door — LaForce → RedBird, Cornwell → Dynasty
Post 7: The Four Battlegrounds ← YOU ARE HERE — The synthesis
The Series in One Image
Posts 1 through 6 each told a piece of the story. Post 7 connects them all.
Here's the full architecture:
LAYER 1 — ESPN EQUITY (Post 1):
• NFL acquires 10% of ESPN ($3B value) via asset-for-equity swap
• Structured as two separate agreements to control CBA revenue classification
• If classified as “All Revenues”: players get $1.46B over 10 years
• If classified as “asset sale”: players get $0
• Deal closed February 1, 2026
LAYER 2 — BIOMETRIC DATA PIPELINE (Post 2):
• RFID chips in shoulder pads → Next Gen Stats → Genius Sports → DraftKings/sportsbooks
• $30B+ in annual NFL betting handle enabled by player tracking data
• Genius Sports earns $70-168M/year in data fees from sportsbooks
• NFL earns $20M/year from Genius + 8.7% equity stake ($235M value)
• Players earn $0 from their own data
• CBA is silent on data ownership and commercial use
LAYER 3 — PREDICTION MARKETS (Post 2/3):
• DraftKings Predictions live in 38 states (Dec 19, 2025)
• Operates under CFTC regulation, not state gaming commissions
• Available in CA, TX, FL — states where sports betting is illegal
• Sports = 90% of Kalshi’s $2B/week volume
• Kalshi in 19 federal lawsuits, headed toward Supreme Court
• NFL hasn’t blocked it — ESPN promoting DraftKings Predictions
• Revenue potential: billions, but CBA doesn’t address it at all
LAYER 4 — THE GENIUS DEPENDENCY (Post 4):
• NFL owns 8.7% of Genius Sports (largest shareholder)
• Genius still losing money ($63M net loss 2024, $53.9M H1 2025)
• Entire NFL betting pipeline runs through Genius (BetVision, FanHub, GeniusIQ)
• NFL can’t replace Genius before 2030 without destroying pipeline
• Mutual trap: both sides need each other, neither can leave
LAYER 5 — 32 EQUITY VENTURE FUND (Post 5):
• $256M invested by 32 teams (2013, 2017-2019, 2022)
• Portfolio worth $3.2B+ (as of 2022, likely higher now)
• Realized gains: $600M+ (On Location, Skillz, others)
• Unrealized gains: $2B+ (Fanatics 3% = $900M+, Genius, full portfolio)
• Returns classified as “capital appreciation,” not “All Revenues”
• Players get $0
• Investment Committee: Haslam, Hunt, Irsay-Gordon, Khan, Kraft, Tepper
• Confirmed self-dealing: 32 Equity owned Genius equity BEFORE NFL voted to approve Genius data deal (April 2021)
LAYER 6 — THE REVOLVING DOOR (Post 6):
• Kevin LaForce: NFL (ran 32 Equity, negotiated media deals) → RedBird Capital (June 2021) → EverPass Media (NFL partner, May 2023)
• Don Cornwell: NFL (1994-1996) → Morgan Stanley (advised NFL) → PJT Partners (advised NFL on PE approvals) → Dynasty Equity (founded 2022, approved by NFL Aug 2024)
• Pattern: NFL executives monetize league knowledge at PE firms, which then partner with/invest in NFL
• Players get $0 from executive post-employment gains
THE COMMON THREAD:
Every layer was built outside the CBA’s “All Revenues” framework.
Every layer was built while the NFLPA was leaderless (July 2025-present).
Every layer generates billions in value using player-generated content.
Every layer pays players $0.
Battleground 1: ESPN Equity Classification
What's at stake: $1.46 billion over 10 years in player compensation.
The structure (from Post 1): The NFL acquired 10% of ESPN (valued at $3 billion) as part of a deal that closed February 1, 2026. The deal was structured as two separate agreements:
- Agreement 1: Asset sale — NFL sold NFL Network, RedZone, and NFL Fantasy to ESPN
- Agreement 2: Licensing deal — NFL licensed Monday Night Football and other game rights to ESPN
The NFL's position: The 10% equity was compensation for Agreement 1 (the asset sale). Under CBA Article 12, Section 1(a)(i)(11)(B), proceeds from selling NFL-owned businesses are NOT "All Revenues" and don't get shared with players.
The NFLPA's likely challenge: The equity was actually compensation for both agreements combined. Agreement 2 (the licensing deal) is absolutely a commercial partnership. Under CBA Article 12, Section 12, equity received as part of commercial partnerships IS "All Revenues" and gets amortized over 10 years at fair market value.
If the NFLPA wins and the full $3 billion is classified as commercial deal equity:
- $3B amortized over 10 years = $300M/year added to "All Revenues"
- Players get 48.8% of All Revenues
- $300M × 48.8% = $146.4M/year to players
- Over 10 years: $1.46 billion
This isn't theoretical. It's math from confirmed deal terms and CBA language. The fight is over classification. And $1.46 billion hangs on how it gets classified.
Battleground 2: Biometric Data Ownership
What's at stake: $300 million+ per year in player compensation, potentially much more.
The pipeline (from Post 2):
- Zebra Technologies RFID chips in player shoulder pads (mandatory, CBA Article 51, §13(C))
- 10 data points per second per player, 200+ per play
- AWS processes data → Next Gen Stats metrics
- Genius Sports distributes data to sportsbooks ($70-168M/year in fees from 4-6% of GGR)
- Sportsbooks use data to create prop bets → $30B+ in annual NFL betting handle
What players currently get: $0. The CBA says the NFL can mandate sensors for "performance tracking." It says nothing about who owns the data or whether players get compensated for commercial use.
What other leagues do:
- MLB: CBA Attachment 56 explicitly PROHIBITS commercial use of wearable data without player consent
- NBA: Players retain rights to their biometric data, consent required for commercial use
- NFL: CBA is silent on ownership, silent on commercial use, silent on revenue sharing
The NFLPA's argument: "You're making billions off our bodies. The data came from chips you made us wear. Genius Sports pays you for it. Sportsbooks pay Genius for it. We want a cut."
The math: If players get even 1% of the $30B betting handle as a data licensing fee, that's $300 million per year. If they get a share of Genius Sports' margin ($70-168M/year in data fees), that's another revenue stream. If they get equity in Genius (like the NFL has 8.7%), that's long-term upside.
This fight will set the precedent for how ALL sports leagues treat player biometric data. The NBA, MLB, international soccer — everyone is watching.
Battleground 3: Prediction Market Revenue
What's at stake: Unknown, but potentially billions.
The landscape (from Posts 2 and 3):
- DraftKings Predictions launched December 19, 2025
- Live in 38 states under CFTC regulation (not state gaming commissions)
- Includes CA, TX, FL — states where sports betting is illegal
- Kalshi: $11B valuation, $2B/week volume, sports = 90%+ during NFL playoffs
- ESPN promoting DraftKings Predictions on its platform
- 38 states filed amicus brief against Kalshi (Dec 2025), headed toward Supreme Court
The CBA problem: Prediction markets aren't mentioned anywhere in the current CBA. They didn't exist as a regulated product when the 2020 CBA was negotiated. Now they're a massive market — and growing fast.
The NFLPA's question: "If the NFL profits from prediction markets on our games — either directly (licensing deals) or indirectly (ESPN promotion, DraftKings partnership) — where's our cut?"
The NFL doesn't have a good answer yet. Because the CBA doesn't address prediction markets at all. The 2027 negotiation is where those rules get written.
If prediction markets survive the Supreme Court fight and become permanent, they could generate as much handle as traditional sports betting. That's tens of billions per year. Even a small player revenue share (1-2%) would be worth hundreds of millions annually.
But if the states win and prediction markets on sports get banned, the entire conversation is moot. The NFL loses a potential revenue source — but also doesn't have to share it with players.
Battleground 4: 32 Equity Returns
What's at stake: $2.1 billion+ in player compensation (historical realized gains + unrealized portfolio value).
The fund (from Post 5, with updated confirmed numbers):
- $256 million invested by 32 teams (2013, 2017-2019, 2022)
- Portfolio worth $3.2 billion+ as of 2022 (likely higher now)
- Realized gains: $600M+ confirmed (On Location sold to Endeavor at $660M valuation, Skillz SPAC at $3.5B, others)
- Unrealized gains: $2B+ estimated (Fanatics 3% stake worth $900M+, Genius Sports, full portfolio)
- Players' share of returns: $0
Why players get nothing: Venture fund returns are classified as "capital appreciation," not "All Revenues" under the CBA. The NFL's argument: the teams invested their own money ($256M), the gains are equity appreciation, and the CBA doesn't mention venture capital.
The NFLPA's counter: 32 Equity invested in companies the NFL then partnered with. Fanatics: invested 2017, then extended as exclusive e-commerce partner. Genius Sports: invested before 2021, then gave exclusive data deal. Clear, STRIVR, Appetize: all invested, then deployed across NFL operations. The NFL's commercial leverage drove these companies' valuations higher. That leverage is built on player-generated content. Therefore, 32 Equity returns are de facto "All Revenues" and should be shared.
The confirmed self-dealing (new in updated Post 5): 32 Equity held equity in Genius Sports BEFORE the NFL voted to approve Genius as its exclusive data partner in April 2021. The owners voted to give a lucrative contract to a company their venture fund already owned a piece of. Kevin LaForce (who ran 32 Equity) negotiated the commercial deal. The decision enriched the fund. That's textbook self-dealing.
The math if players win:
- $600M in realized gains × 48.8% = $293M to players (historical)
- $2B in unrealized gains × 48.8% = $976M to players (if portfolio exits)
- Future gains 2026-2030 (estimated $1.8B more) × 48.8% = $878M more
- Total: $2.1 billion+ in player compensation
This will be one of the defining fights of the 2027 CBA. If the NFLPA wins, every sports league with a venture fund will have to share VC returns with players. If the NFL wins, 32 Equity becomes the blueprint for how leagues extract value outside player compensation forever.
BATTLEGROUND 1 — ESPN EQUITY:
• Player claim: $1.46B over 10 years
• Basis: Reclassify equity as “All Revenues”
• Annual value: $146.4M/year
BATTLEGROUND 2 — BIOMETRIC DATA:
• Player claim: $300M+/year (1% of $30B handle), OR share of Genius margin ($70-168M/year)
• Basis: Players own their tracking data, deserve compensation for commercial use
• Over 10 years: $3B+ minimum
BATTLEGROUND 3 — PREDICTION MARKETS:
• Player claim: Revenue share on NFL-related prediction market activity
• Basis: CBA doesn’t address prediction markets; new revenue stream should be shared
• Over 10 years: Unknown, but potentially $1B+ if markets survive and grow
BATTLEGROUND 4 — 32 EQUITY RETURNS:
• Player claim: $2.1B+ (realized + unrealized + future gains)
• Basis: Venture fund returns built using NFL commercial leverage = “All Revenues”
• Historical realized: $293M | Unrealized: $976M | Future (2026-2030): $878M
TOTAL PLAYER COMPENSATION AT STAKE (CONSERVATIVE):
• ESPN equity: $1.46B
• Biometric data: $3B minimum
• Prediction markets: $1B (if markets survive)
• 32 Equity: $2.1B
• TOTAL: $7.5 billion over 10 years
AGGRESSIVE ESTIMATE (if NFLPA wins everything):
• ESPN equity: $1.46B
• Biometric data: $5B+ (higher revenue share or Genius equity stake)
• Prediction markets: $3B+ (if markets explode and NFL shares revenue)
• 32 Equity: $2.5B+ (if portfolio grows more than projected)
• TOTAL: $10+ billion over 10 years
This is not a negotiation about whether players get a raise.
This is a fight over whether players get access to revenue streams
the NFL built specifically to fall outside CBA revenue sharing.
The NFLPA's Problem: Time and Preparation
The NFLPA walks into this fight with massive structural disadvantages.
Leadership crisis (from Post 3):
- Lloyd Howell resigned as Executive Director in July 2025 amid scandals
- David White is interim Executive Director (as of Feb 2, 2026)
- Permanent search launched October 2025, target hire March 2026
- Suspicion exists that current regime will remove "interim" from White's title before March elections
- New ED will have ~12 months to prepare for CBA talks (if hired March 2026)
- The NFL has been preparing since 2024
Information asymmetry:
- There is zero evidence players know about 32 Equity (no NFLPA statements, no player interviews mentioning it)
- The ESPN equity classification issue isn't public knowledge outside financial media
- The biometric data pipeline is understood by betting industry insiders but not by players
- The prediction market regulatory fight is ongoing but players aren't engaged in it
The NFL's advantages:
- The NFL built all four battlegrounds while the NFLPA was leaderless
- The Investment Committee for 32 Equity (Haslam, Hunt, Irsay-Gordon, Khan, Kraft, Tepper) knows exactly what's coming
- Kevin LaForce (who built 32 Equity and negotiated the Genius deal) is now at RedBird Capital — if the NFL needs outside advice, they can hire the person who built the system
- The NFL can frame the negotiation: "We need to revisit the revenue split because of rising costs" (Goodell already said this in May 2025)
The NFLPA has about 12 months to close this gap. That's not a lot of time to learn corporate finance, antitrust law, CBA revenue classification, biometric data ownership, venture capital accounting, and prediction market regulation.
DeMaurice Smith (the NFLPA Executive Director who led the 2011 lockout fight) had two years to prepare. The next ED will have one year — maybe less.
The Leverage Question: Can the Players Actually Win?
Post 3 laid out the leverage dynamics. Here's the updated version with confirmed numbers:
Owners' leverage (2011 vs 2027):
- 2011: Owners had $4B in TV lockout insurance (pre-negotiated payments even if no games played). Judge Doty ruled it violated Sherman Act, but damage was done.
- 2027: DTC/streaming economics are fundamentally different. ESPN DTC ($29.99/month), Amazon TNF, YouTube Sunday Ticket, Netflix Christmas games — all content-delivery models. No games = no content = subscribers cancel immediately. The 2011 pre-paid TV insurance model CANNOT be replicated.
Cost of a lockout (2011 vs 2027):
- 2011: NFL generated ~$9B/year. Full season lost = ~$4-5B cost to owners.
- 2027: NFL generates $23-25B/year (projected). Full season lost = $12-15B+ cost to owners.
- Additionally: a 2027 lockout poisons the 2029 media auction. Every network discounts bids by probability of future work stoppages.
Players' new leverage (didn't exist in 2011):
- ESPN equity argument: $1.46B at stake
- Biometric data argument: "You made $30B in betting handle off our bodies and paid us nothing"
- 32 Equity self-dealing: The NFL voted to enrich its own venture fund
- Public sympathy: "Billionaires vs millionaires" (2011) becomes "They made billions off our data and gave us $0" (2027)
The decertification playbook (from 2011):
- NFLPA decertifies as a union → NFL loses antitrust exemption
- Players file antitrust suit (Brady v NFL in 2011)
- In 2011, Judge Nelson initially ruled the lockout was illegal (later overturned on appeal, but it cost the owners months)
- In 2027, the antitrust arguments are STRONGER: the NFL's vertical integration into ESPN (10%), Genius Sports (8.7%), 32 Equity investments, and prediction market promotion looks like anticompetitive behavior
The NFL's biggest advantage: The NFLPA isn't ready. The union is leaderless, the players don't know what they're fighting for, and the clock is ticking.
The players' biggest advantage: The lockout math has shifted. In 2027, a work stoppage costs the NFL 2.5x more than it did in 2011 — and the DTC economics mean the owners can't pre-fund a lockout the way they did before.
This doesn't mean the players will win. But it means the fight is winnable in a way it wasn't in 2011.
What Happens Next
The 2027 CBA negotiation will be unlike any labor fight in NFL history. Not because of the dollar amounts (though $7.5-10 billion is massive). But because of what the fight is actually about.
In 2011, the fight was about salary cap percentages and revenue sharing formulas. It was a traditional labor negotiation: owners wanted to pay less, players wanted to get more.
In 2027, the fight is about what counts as revenue in the first place.
Does ESPN equity count? Does biometric data count? Do prediction markets count? Do 32 Equity returns count?
The NFL has spent two years building a shadow financial empire designed so the answer to all four questions is "no." The empire generates billions in value using player-generated content. But none of it is classified as "All Revenues" under the CBA. So players get $0.
The NFLPA is going to walk into the negotiation and say: "We're redefining what 'All Revenues' means. If it's built on our content, our data, our bodies — it's revenue. And we want our 48.8%."
The NFL will say: "The CBA doesn't say equity appreciation is revenue. It doesn't say venture fund returns are revenue. It doesn't say data licensing is revenue. You agreed to this language in 2020. We're not changing it now."
And then it's a fight. A fight over corporate finance. A fight over CBA interpretation. A fight over whether the NFL's shadow financial empire is separate from the league — or whether it's just the league by another name.
This series documented what's been built. The next chapter — the one that hasn't been written yet — is about whether anyone fights to change it.
Conclusion: The Roadmap
Seven posts. One story.
The NFL built a financial empire on player-generated content while structuring every piece of it to fall outside CBA revenue sharing. ESPN equity. Biometric data. Prediction markets. 32 Equity. Kevin LaForce left to join RedBird and partnered with the NFL. Don Cornwell left to found Dynasty Equity and was approved to invest in NFL teams. The whole system is designed to capture value while excluding players.
And the NFLPA didn't know most of it existed until this series documented it.
The 2027 CBA fight is coming. Four battlegrounds. $7.5-10 billion in player compensation at stake. The NFL has been preparing since 2024. The NFLPA is still searching for a permanent Executive Director.
This is the roadmap. This is what the fight is actually about.
Whether the players win depends on one thing: whether they're willing to fight for revenue streams they didn't know existed 18 months ago.
The NFL is betting they won't. That the complexity will overwhelm them. That the NFLPA will settle for a raise on the traditional revenue streams (TV contracts, gate receipts, sponsorships) and leave the shadow empire untouched.
But if the players study this roadmap — if they understand the ESPN equity classification fight, the biometric data pipeline, the 32 Equity self-dealing, the prediction market opportunity — they have leverage they've never had before.
The question isn't whether the fight is winnable. It is.
The question is whether anyone fights.
WHAT THIS SERIES IS:
A seven-post human-AI collaborative investigation into the NFL’s shadow financial empire. Human (Randy) identified the story, set the strategy, and made all editorial decisions. AI (Claude, Anthropic) conducted research, synthesized findings, and drafted all posts. Every confirmed fact is attributed. Every inference is labeled. Every speculation is flagged.
WHAT WE DOCUMENTED:
• Post 1: ESPN equity structure, two-agreement classification, $1.46B player claim
• Post 2: Biometric data pipeline, CBA gaps, prediction markets, BIPA exposure
• Post 3: NFLPA leadership crisis, 2027 timeline, leverage analysis, DTC economics shift
• Post 4: Genius Sports dependency, 8.7% stake, mutual trap, Sportradar precedent
• Post 5: 32 Equity fund, $256M invested, $3.2B portfolio, confirmed Genius self-dealing, exit profit flows
• Post 6: Revolving door (LaForce → RedBird, Cornwell → Dynasty), jobs-for-deals pipeline
• Post 7: Synthesis, four battlegrounds, $7.5-10B player compensation at stake
WHAT’S CONFIRMED vs INFERRED:
Every post includes a detailed sourcing note breaking down:
• What’s confirmed by primary sources (SEC filings, earnings calls, press releases, court documents)
• What’s estimated (e.g., Genius revenue from GGR calculations, 32 Equity unrealized gains)
• What’s inferred (e.g., NFLPA will challenge ESPN classification, self-dealing implications)
• What’s speculated (e.g., exact prediction market revenue, 2027 strike probability)
WHY THIS SERIES MATTERS:
Nobody else connected ESPN equity + biometric data + Genius dependency + 32 Equity + revolving door into one story. We named the architecture. We quantified the gaps. We identified the conflicts. We built the roadmap for the 2027 CBA fight.
And we were transparent about every step. That’s how investigative work should be done.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT:
The story writes itself. NFLPA ED hire (target March 2026). Zebra contract renewal (expires end of 2025 season). Kalshi Supreme Court case. Genius Q4 earnings (March 2026). Any of these could be breaking news that updates the series.
The 2027 CBA fight will prove whether this series was prescient — or whether the NFL settles quietly and keeps the shadow empire intact.
Watch 2027. 🔥


