Posts
The Data Advantage
What Sportsbooks Know That You Don't
The House Always Wins, Post 2 | February 6, 2026
Post 1: The House Problem — The NFL owns the house
Post 2: The Data Advantage ← YOU ARE HERE — NGS data enables unfair odds
Post 3: The Odds Shift — House edge doubled since 2019
Post 4: The Real-Time Edge — Lines move before you see the play
Post 5: The Historical Pattern — NFL has hidden revenue before
Post 6: The Regulatory Gap — Why no one stopped this
Post 7: The Legal Exposure — Class actions, antitrust, consumer fraud
What Is Next Gen Stats?
Next Gen Stats (NGS) is the NFL's proprietary player tracking system. It's powered by RFID chips embedded in every player's shoulder pads — two chips per player, mandated by the CBA (Article 51, Section 13(C)).
The chips transmit data to 20-30 ultra-wideband receivers installed in every NFL stadium. Those receivers capture player position, speed, acceleration, and distance traveled. The system generates approximately 10 data points per second per player. Over the course of a typical play (4-6 seconds), that's 200+ data points per play across all 22 players on the field.
The data is processed by Amazon Web Services (AWS), which generates the metrics you see during broadcasts:
- Player speed (miles per hour)
- Separation (distance between receiver and defender)
- Time to throw (quarterback release speed)
- Yards after catch (YAC)
- Route efficiency (how tight a receiver's route was)
- Expected completion probability (based on coverage and throw distance)
These are the public-facing NGS metrics. They appear on broadcasts, on NFL.com, and in fantasy football apps. They're designed to enhance the viewing experience.
But the raw NGS data contains far more than what's shown publicly. The full dataset includes:
- Biometric indicators: Fatigue (declining speed over quarters), injury risk (movement pattern changes), stamina (acceleration decay)
- Tactical data: Formation recognition, play-calling tendencies, route combinations, blitz frequency
- Historical performance models: How a player performs under specific conditions (weather, opponent, field position, game situation)
- Correlation analysis: How one player's performance affects another (e.g., when Mahomes throws to Kelce in the red zone, completion probability increases 18%)
The public gets speed and separation. Sportsbooks get predictive models.
How Sportsbooks Use NGS Data
Genius Sports is the exclusive distributor of NGS data for sports betting purposes. Under the NFL's data deal (extended through 2030), Genius licenses NGS to every major sportsbook: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, ESPN Bet, and dozens of others.
Here's what sportsbooks do with it:
1. Price Same Game Parlays (SGPs)
A Same Game Parlay allows bettors to combine multiple prop bets from a single game into one wager. For example:
"Patrick Mahomes Over 275.5 passing yards + Travis Kelce Over 75.5 receiving yards + Chiefs win by 7+ points"
These bets are correlated. If Mahomes throws for 300 yards, it's more likely Kelce caught some of those passes. If Kelce has a big game, the Chiefs are more likely to win by a large margin. The outcomes aren't independent — they're linked.
To price an SGP accurately, sportsbooks need to model the correlation between events. That requires:
- Historical data on how often Mahomes targets Kelce in different game situations
- Real-time data on Kelce's route efficiency and separation rates
- Fatigue indicators (is Mahomes's arm strength declining in the 4th quarter?)
- Defensive matchup data (how does the opponent cover tight ends?)
NGS provides all of this. Without it, sportsbooks couldn't offer SGPs safely — the risk of mispricing correlated events would be too high. But with NGS data, sportsbooks can model correlations with high confidence and price SGPs aggressively.
How aggressively? SGPs have a 20%+ house edge compared to 5% on traditional straight bets. Sportsbooks love them. And 80%+ of FanDuel bettors now place parlays.
DraftKings admitted this directly. From the August 2021 announcement:
"The agreement is set to make DraftKings one of the first betting operators to offer the full range of Genius Sports' NFL products, including NGS data, influencing pre- and in-game engagement, customer acquisition and retention... We are excited to expand on the capabilities of our products and provide new and exciting features for our customers like single-game parlays, while having confidence in the integrity of the data we utilize to fuel our offerings."
DraftKings couldn't offer SGPs without Genius Sports' NGS data. The product requires it.
THE QUOTE (August 2021):
“The agreement is set to make DraftKings one of the first betting operators to offer the full range of Genius Sports’ NFL products, including NGS data… We are excited to expand on the capabilities of our products and provide new and exciting features for our customers like single-game parlays, while having confidence in the integrity of the data we utilize to fuel our offerings.”
— Ezra Kucharz, Chief Business Officer, DraftKings
WHAT THIS MEANS:
• DraftKings explicitly linked NGS data to the launch of Same Game Parlays
• The feature was “added through the DraftKings data deal with Genius Sports” (confirmed by multiple sources)
• SGPs require NGS data to price correlation between events (e.g., Mahomes yards + Kelce yards + Chiefs win)
• Without NGS data, sportsbooks can’t model correlations accurately → can’t offer SGPs safely
• The NFL mandates player tracking → generates NGS data → gives it to Genius → Genius gives it to sportsbooks → sportsbooks create SGPs (20%+ house edge) → bettors lose at 4x higher rate than traditional bets
THE TIMELINE:
• April 2021: NFL signs Genius Sports as exclusive data partner
• August 2021: DraftKings announces SGP launch via Genius data deal
• 2021-2024: SGPs explode in popularity (80%+ of FanDuel bettors now use them)
• 2024: Parlays drive 53.7% of sportsbook gross revenue despite being only 24.4% of handle
THE CONFLICT:
• NFL owns largest stake in Genius Sports
• Genius provides NGS data that enables SGPs
• SGPs have 4x higher house edge than straight bets
• NFL profits when Genius profits
• Genius profits when sportsbooks profit
• Sportsbooks profit when bettors lose
• The NFL benefits financially from a bet type designed to maximize bettor losses
2. Adjust In-Game Odds in Real-Time
In-game betting (also called live betting) allows bettors to place wagers while a game is in progress. Lines change constantly based on what's happening on the field.
But here's the problem: sportsbooks see the field before you do.
NGS data feeds are real-time. They're transmitted directly from the stadium receivers to AWS to Genius Sports to the sportsbooks. There's no broadcast delay. Sportsbooks know what happened on a play within 1-2 seconds of it happening.
You, the bettor, are watching on TV. And TV has a delay:
- Cable: 7-10 second delay
- Streaming (Hulu, YouTube TV, Sling): 15-45 second delay
- YouTube TV Super Bowl: Up to 54 seconds behind real-time
So when you see a play happen on your screen, the sportsbook saw it 20-50 seconds earlier. And they've already adjusted the odds.
Multiple bettors have complained about this on social media:
"The in-play game total price would adjust according to field position etc., and I could basically tell what was going to happen on the next play on TV because of the odds change."
Translation: The odds changed before the bettor saw what happened. The sportsbook was reacting to real-time NGS data while the bettor was reacting to a delayed broadcast.
That's not competitive betting. That's asymmetric information.
3. Model Injury Risk and Fatigue
NGS tracks movement patterns. If a player's speed declines over the course of a game, that's a fatigue indicator. If their acceleration off the line decreases, that could signal an injury. If their route efficiency drops (taking longer paths to get to the same spot), that suggests physical limitation.
Sportsbooks use this data to adjust player prop odds. For example:
If a running back's average speed in the first quarter is 18 mph, but it drops to 16 mph in the third quarter, the sportsbook can infer fatigue. They'll adjust the "Over/Under total rushing yards" line downward — because the player is slowing down.
But you, the bettor, don't have access to that data. You see the stat line (15 carries, 60 yards at halftime). You don't see that his speed per carry has declined 11%. So when you bet "Over" on his total rushing yards, you're betting against a house that knows he's fatigued.
This is especially powerful for in-game prop betting, where odds adjust constantly. The sportsbook is modeling injury risk and fatigue in real-time. Bettors are guessing.
4. Build Predictive Pricing Models
Genius Sports markets this feature explicitly. From their website:
"We've delivered trading profits for 20+ years. Our advanced models simulate millions of possible outcomes to generate predictive pricing for every market-type in real-time."
Let's break that down:
"Trading profits" = sportsbook profits. Genius helps sportsbooks win.
"Simulate millions of outcomes" = Monte Carlo modeling using NGS data to predict every possible game scenario.
"Predictive pricing" = odds designed to maximize sportsbook profit, not reflect true probability.
Genius Sports CEO Mark Locke has said NGS helps sportsbooks "stand out from the competition" through "trading and marketing services." Translation: NGS gives sportsbooks an edge. And the NFL owns the largest stake in the company providing that edge.
WHAT GENIUS PROVIDES TO SPORTSBOOKS:
• Real-time NGS data feeds (10 points/second/player, 200+ points/play)
• Historical performance databases (every player, every game, every situation)
• Correlation modeling (how one event affects another in SGPs)
• Fatigue indicators (speed decline, acceleration decay)
• Injury risk models (movement pattern changes)
• Formation recognition (defensive coverage, blitz probability)
• Play-calling tendencies (situational analysis)
WHAT GENIUS DOES WITH IT:
“Our advanced models simulate millions of possible outcomes to generate
predictive pricing for every market-type in real-time.”
— Genius Sports marketing materials
TRANSLATION:
Genius uses NGS data to build algorithms that price every bet (spread, total,
prop, SGP, live bet) to maximize sportsbook profit. The odds you see aren’t
designed to reflect true probability — they’re designed to extract maximum
value from bettors while minimizing sportsbook risk.
WHAT BETTORS GET:
• Final odds (no access to the NGS data that powered them)
• No correlation models
• No fatigue indicators
• No injury risk models
• No play-calling tendency data
• Delayed broadcasts (20-54 seconds behind real-time)
THE ASYMMETRY:
Sportsbooks have predictive models powered by real-time biometric data.
Bettors have box scores and delayed TV feeds.
That’s not competitive odds. That’s a rigged game.
Why Bettors Can't Access NGS Data
You might be asking: if NGS data is so valuable, why can't bettors buy access to it?
The answer is: the NFL won't let them.
Genius Sports has an exclusive deal with the NFL to distribute NGS data for sports betting purposes. That exclusivity runs through 2030. And Genius only licenses the data to sportsbooks — not to individual bettors, not to analytics firms, not to betting syndicates.
Some NGS metrics are public (speed, separation, time to throw). You can see those on NFL.com and during broadcasts. But the advanced metrics — the ones sportsbooks use to build predictive models — aren't available to the public.
There are third-party sports data companies (like Pro Football Focus, Sports Info Solutions, and others) that track performance metrics. But they don't have access to the raw RFID data. They're using film study and manual charting. It's not the same as 10 data points per second per player captured by sensors.
So bettors are left with:
- Public NGS metrics (limited)
- Box score stats (basic)
- Third-party analytics (good, but not real-time)
- Their own research and intuition
Meanwhile, sportsbooks have:
- Full NGS data feeds (real-time, comprehensive)
- Genius Sports' predictive pricing models
- Correlation analysis for SGPs
- Fatigue and injury risk indicators
- 20-54 second head start on in-game betting
It's not even close to a fair fight.
The NFL Designed This System
Let's trace how we got here:
Step 1: The NFL mandates RFID tracking in players' shoulder pads (CBA Article 51, Section 13(C)). Players have no choice. If you play in the NFL, you wear the chips.
Step 2: The RFID chips generate NGS data. The NFL owns that data. It's proprietary league property.
Step 3: The NFL gives exclusive distribution rights to Genius Sports (deal signed April 2021, extended through 2030).
Step 4: The NFL takes equity in Genius Sports as part of the deal. The league becomes Genius's largest shareholder.
Step 5: Genius licenses NGS data to sportsbooks at a premium (4-6% of sportsbook GGR). Sportsbooks use the data to create SGPs, adjust live odds, and build predictive pricing models.
Step 6: Sportsbooks profit from high-margin bets (SGPs at 20%+ hold) enabled by NGS data. Genius profits from data licensing fees. The NFL's Genius equity stake appreciates.
Step 7: Bettors lose at higher rates because they're playing against a house with information they don't have.
The NFL built every step of this system. The league:
- Mandates player tracking
- Owns the data
- Controls distribution (via Genius exclusive deal)
- Profits from distribution (via Genius equity)
- Ensures bettors can't access the data
This isn't an accident. It's architecture.
The "Integrity" Excuse
When the NFL-Genius deal was announced, the league framed it as an "integrity monitoring" partnership. The idea: official data from Genius ensures the accuracy and legitimacy of betting markets. Sportsbooks using unofficial data could be vulnerable to manipulation or errors.
Mark Locke, Genius Sports CEO, has emphasized this repeatedly. NGS provides "confidence in the integrity of the data" that sportsbooks use.
But "integrity" is doing a lot of work here. Let's be clear about what it actually means:
Integrity = accuracy. NGS data is accurate because it comes directly from RFID sensors in the players' pads. It's not manually tracked or estimated. It's precise.
But accuracy isn't the same as fairness. A bet can be priced accurately (based on true probabilities) or it can be priced to maximize house profit. Genius provides the latter.
The "integrity" framing also serves another purpose: it justifies data monopolies. Several states (Illinois, Tennessee) have passed laws requiring sportsbooks to use "official league data" for in-game betting. This eliminates competition, inflates costs (sportsbooks have no choice but to pay Genius's fees), and protects the NFL's equity stake value.
So "integrity monitoring" becomes "regulatory capture." Gaming commissions approve exclusive data deals because leagues frame them as protecting bettors. But what they're actually protecting is the NFL's financial interest in Genius Sports.
THE NFL’S FRAMING:
• Genius Sports provides “official” NGS data to ensure accuracy and integrity
• Sportsbooks using unofficial data could be vulnerable to errors or manipulation
• Exclusive data deals protect bettors by ensuring bet settlement is based on accurate information
WHAT “INTEGRITY” ACTUALLY MEANS:
• Accuracy: NGS data is precise because it comes from RFID sensors (not manually tracked)
• Monopoly protection: Exclusive deals eliminate competition, inflating costs for sportsbooks (passed to bettors via worse odds)
• Regulatory justification: States like Illinois and Tennessee require “official” data for in-game betting — this locks in Genius’s monopoly
WHAT “INTEGRITY” DOESN’T MEAN:
• Fair odds (NGS data is used to maximize house profit, not reflect true probability)
• Information symmetry (bettors can’t access NGS data, sportsbooks can)
• Consumer protection (bettors are disadvantaged by exclusive data deals they’re not party to)
THE CONFLICT:
• NFL owns largest stake in Genius Sports
• NFL negotiates exclusive data deals that benefit Genius
• States require sportsbooks to use Genius data (regulatory mandate)
• Sportsbooks pass Genius’s high fees to bettors via worse odds
• NFL profits when Genius profits
• The “integrity” framing protects the NFL’s financial interest while disadvantaging bettors
What This Means for Bettors
If you're betting on NFL games, you're playing against a house that has:
- Real-time biometric data on every player
- Predictive models simulating millions of outcomes
- Correlation analysis for Same Game Parlays
- Fatigue and injury risk indicators
- 20-54 second head start on in-game bets
And you have:
- Box scores
- Delayed TV broadcasts
- Public NGS metrics (limited)
- Your own research
This is not competitive betting. This is information asymmetry by design. The NFL built the system, owns the data, profits from its distribution, and ensures you can't access what the house has.
Post 2 documented the mechanism. Post 3 will show the financial impact: how house edge doubled after NGS data became available. How SGPs have 4x higher margins than traditional bets. And how 80% of bettors now play the worst-odds bets available — because the house designed it that way.
WHAT’S CONFIRMED (Primary Sources):
• DraftKings SGP quote: August 2021 press release announcing Genius Sports partnership, Ezra Kucharz (DraftKings CBO) explicitly linked NGS data to SGP launch
• Genius Sports “predictive pricing” quote: Genius Sports website marketing materials, publicly accessible
• Mark Locke quotes on NGS advantage: Multiple interviews and earnings calls where Genius CEO described NGS helping sportsbooks “stand out from the competition”
• NGS data specs: 10 points/second/player, 200+ points/play confirmed by NFL.com NGS documentation and AWS case studies
• SGP house edge (20%+): Industry reports from Legal Sports Report, sports betting analytics firms, confirmed by multiple sources
• 80%+ of FanDuel bettors place parlays: Flutter (FanDuel parent company) Q2 2022 earnings report
• Broadcast delays: Cable 7-10s, streaming 15-45s, YouTube TV Super Bowl 54s — confirmed by multiple tech analyses and bettor reports
• Bettor complaints about line movements: Social media (X/Twitter) accounts documented in research, quotes reproduced verbatim
• Illinois/Tennessee official data mandates: State gaming commission regulations, publicly available
WHAT’S INFERRED (Clearly Labeled):
• “Information asymmetry by design”: Our characterization based on exclusive data deals, limited public access, and sportsbook advantages
• “Odds designed to maximize profit, not reflect probability”: Inference from Genius’s “predictive pricing” language and SGP house edge data
• “NFL designed this system”: Our editorial conclusion based on the structural chain (mandate tracking → own data → exclusive deal → profit from equity)
WHY THIS MATTERS:
Sportsbooks openly admit they use NGS data to create products (SGPs) and price odds (“predictive pricing”). Bettors can’t access that data. This is the mechanism that turns NFL ownership (Post 1) into bettor losses (Post 3). The next post quantifies the impact.
