Posts
The Historical Pattern
The NFL Has Done This Before
The House Always Wins, Post 5 | February 6, 2026
Post 1: The House Problem — The NFL owns the house
Post 2: The Data Advantage — NGS data enables unfair odds
Post 3: The Odds Shift — House edge doubled since 2019
Post 4: The Real-Time Edge — Lines move before you see the play
Post 5: The Historical Pattern ← YOU ARE HERE — NFL has hidden revenue before
Post 6: The Regulatory Gap — Why no one stopped this
Post 7: The Legal Exposure — Class actions, antitrust, consumer fraud
Case 1: The 2016 Ticket Revenue Scheme
From 2012 to 2014, NFL owners withheld over $120 million in ticket revenue from the shared revenue pool that determines player compensation.
Here's how it worked:
Under the CBA, ticket revenue is classified as "All Revenues" and is shared between owners and players. Players receive approximately 48% of All Revenues, which directly determines the salary cap. If revenue goes up, the cap goes up. If revenue is underreported, the cap stays artificially low — and players get less money.
The owners found a loophole (or created one). They reclassified certain ticket sales as "waived gate revenue" — money supposedly forgiven or deferred for stadium financing projects. The CBA allowed exemptions for Personal Seat Licenses (PSLs) and premium seating in some circumstances. But waived gate revenue wasn't explicitly listed as an exemption.
So the owners reclassified $120+ million in ticket sales as waived gate, excluded it from All Revenues, and reduced the salary cap accordingly. Players lost approximately $50 million in compensation over three years.
The NFLPA audited league finances (as allowed under the CBA) and discovered the discrepancy. The union filed a grievance. Commissioner Roger Goodell — whose salary is paid by the owners — sided with the owners and denied the grievance.
The NFLPA appealed to independent arbitration. Arbitrator Stephen Burbank reviewed the case and ruled in favor of the players. The decision was clear: the owners had violated the CBA by improperly excluding ticket revenue from revenue sharing.
Burbank ordered immediate repayment. The 2016 salary cap was adjusted upward by approximately $1.5 million per team — a total of about $48 million added back to the player pool.
The NFL's response? A statement calling it a "technical accounting issue."
It wasn't technical. It was intentional. Teams like the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys had reclassified ticket sales tied to stadium financing as non-shared revenue. The decision reduced the salary cap, reduced player compensation, and increased owner profits.
This was revenue hiding. And it worked — until the NFLPA caught it.
WHAT HAPPENED:
• 2012-2014: NFL owners withheld $120+ million in ticket revenue from revenue sharing
• Owners reclassified ticket sales as “waived gate revenue” (stadium financing)
• Waived gate was excluded from “All Revenues” (the pool shared with players)
• This reduced the salary cap and player compensation by ~$50 million over 3 years
THE CBA VIOLATION:
• CBA allows exemptions for PSLs and premium seating in specific circumstances
• Waived gate revenue was NOT an allowed exemption
• Owners created the classification to exclude ticket sales from revenue sharing
THE DISCOVERY:
• NFLPA audited league finances (CBA right)
• Audit revealed $120M in underreported ticket revenue
• NFLPA filed grievance
THE ARBITRATION:
• Roger Goodell (paid by owners) initially sided with owners
• NFLPA appealed to independent arbitrator Stephen Burbank
• Burbank ruled in favor of players (owners violated CBA)
• Ordered immediate repayment
THE REPAYMENT:
• 2016 salary cap increased by ~$1.5M per team
• Total repayment: ~$48 million to players
• NFL called it a “technical accounting issue”
WHAT THIS PROVES:
NFL owners have institutional experience hiding revenue from players through
creative accounting. The 2016 case was discovered only because the NFLPA
audited league finances. How much other revenue has been misclassified?
The pattern: Reclassify revenue as something outside CBA definitions → reduce
player compensation → profit → call it “technical” if caught.
Case 2: The 2025 Collusion Ruling (And the NFLPA Cover-Up)
In January 2025, an independent arbitrator issued a 61-page ruling on whether NFL owners had colluded to suppress guaranteed contracts following Deshaun Watson's fully guaranteed $230 million deal with the Cleveland Browns in March 2022.
The ruling found no full-scale collusion among all 32 owners. But it did find that Commissioner Roger Goodell and NFL General Counsel Jeff Pash had "encouraged" owners to limit guaranteed contracts at a May 2022 league meeting.
Emails and text messages showed that the NFL Management Council — the ownership-side labor negotiation body — had pushed teams to counter the "trend of increasing player guarantees." The goal was to prevent Watson's deal from becoming the new standard.
This isn't illegal under labor law unless it crosses into explicit collusion (all owners agreeing to a coordinated strategy). But the arbitrator found enough evidence of league-level encouragement to issue a detailed ruling.
Here's the problem: the ruling was kept secret.
The NFL and NFLPA signed a confidentiality agreement. NFLPA Executive Director Lloyd Howell — who took over in mid-2023 after DeMaurice Smith's tenure ended — agreed to keep the 61-page ruling from players.
For six months, players didn't know that Goodell and Pash had encouraged owners to suppress their contracts. The ruling sat in Howell's office. The NFLPA didn't disclose it. The NFL didn't disclose it.
In June 2025, the ruling leaked on a podcast. The details became public. And the reaction was immediate.
Players and agents were furious. Why had the NFLPA hidden a ruling that directly affected player compensation? Why had Howell signed a confidentiality agreement that protected the NFL instead of the players?
Howell resigned in July 2025. Federal probes into NFLPA finances were already underway (allegations of fund misuse, conflicts of interest, financial mismanagement). The collusion cover-up added fuel.
By August 2025, the NFLPA was in crisis. No permanent Executive Director. Federal investigations ongoing. Player trust in the union at an all-time low.
And during this entire period — July 2024 through February 2026 — the NFL was building its betting empire. ESPN equity deal (closed February 2024). Genius Sports extensions (June 2025). 32 Equity investments (ongoing). Prediction market expansion (DraftKings Predictions launched December 2025).
The NFL built the system while the union was compromised.
MARCH 2022: Deshaun Watson signs $230M fully guaranteed contract with Cleveland Browns
This was unprecedented in NFL history — no QB had received a fully guaranteed deal of this size
MAY 2022: NFL owners meeting
• Roger Goodell and Jeff Pash (NFL General Counsel) address owners
• Encourage teams to limit guaranteed contracts
• Goal: prevent Watson deal from becoming the new standard
• Emails/texts from NFL Management Council push “counter the trend of increasing guarantees”
2022-2024: Effect on player contracts
• Lamar Jackson (Ravens): Gets partially guaranteed deal, not fully guaranteed
• Kyler Murray (Cardinals): Partially guaranteed
• Other QB contracts: Mix of guarantees, but no Watson-style full guarantees
JANUARY 2025: Arbitration ruling issued
• 61-page decision finds Goodell/Pash “encouraged” owners to suppress guarantees
• Ruling stops short of finding full collusion (which would require coordinated owner agreement)
• But evidence shows league-level pressure to limit player compensation
JANUARY-JUNE 2025: NFLPA covers it up
• Lloyd Howell (NFLPA Executive Director) signs confidentiality agreement with NFL
• Ruling kept secret from players for 6 months
• Players continue negotiating contracts without knowing league suppressed guarantees
JUNE 2025: Ruling leaks on podcast
• Full details become public
• Players and agents furious at NFLPA for hiding ruling
JULY 2025: Lloyd Howell resigns
• Federal probes into NFLPA finances already underway
• Collusion cover-up adds to crisis
• Union leaderless amid investigations
AUGUST 2025-PRESENT: NFLPA in crisis
• No permanent Executive Director
• David White interim ED
• Federal investigations ongoing
• Player trust in union at historic lows
THE TIMING:
NFL built betting empire (ESPN equity, Genius extensions, 32 Equity, prediction markets)
while NFLPA was compromised and leaderless (July 2025-February 2026)
Case 3: Tax Avoidance — Reporting Losses While Profiting Billions
In 2021, ProPublica published an investigation into how sports team owners use IRS rules to avoid paying taxes — even while their teams generate massive profits.
The mechanism: amortization of intangible assets.
When an owner buys an NFL team, the IRS allows them to amortize (depreciate) the purchase price over 15 years. This includes not just physical assets (stadiums, equipment) but also intangible assets like player contracts, TV rights, and brand value.
Here's how it works:
Let's say an owner buys a team for $3 billion. Over the next 15 years, they can deduct $200 million per year from their taxable income as "depreciation" of the team's value — even though the team is actually increasing in value and generating hundreds of millions in profit annually.
So on paper, the owner reports a $200 million loss every year. In reality, the team is making $400 million in profit. But the IRS loss offsets the owner's other income (from businesses, investments, etc.), reducing their overall tax bill.
The Green Bay Packers are the only publicly owned NFL team, so their financials are public. In 2022, the Packers reported $455 million in shared revenue from the league. That's profit — distributed to all 32 teams.
But private NFL owners can hide their true earnings by blending team finances with personal holdings and using amortization to report IRS losses while pocketing hundreds of millions in real profit.
This doesn't directly violate the CBA. But it creates a two-tier system:
- Players: Pay full taxes on their earnings. A player making $10 million pays ~37% federal income tax plus state taxes. Real tax bill: ~$4-5 million.
- Owners: Report IRS losses via amortization. Offset taxes on other income. Minimize tax liability while earning hundreds of millions from team profits.
And it allows owners to claim poverty during CBA negotiations. "We can't afford to pay players more — look at our losses!" But the losses are accounting fictions. The teams are wildly profitable.
THE MECHANISM:
• Owner buys NFL team for $3 billion
• IRS allows 15-year amortization of intangible assets (player contracts, TV rights, brand)
• Owner deducts $200M/year from taxable income as “depreciation”
• Team actually generates $400M/year in profit (real cash flow)
• Owner reports $200M IRS loss (on paper)
• IRS loss offsets owner’s other income → reduces total tax bill
EXAMPLE (HYPOTHETICAL NFL OWNER):
• Team profit: $400M/year
• Amortization deduction: $200M/year
• Reported income: $200M/year
• Actual income: $400M/year + other businesses
• Tax savings: Potentially $50M+/year (depending on other income)
PLAYER COMPARISON:
• Player earning $10M/year pays ~37% federal tax + state tax
• Real tax bill: $4-5M
• Owner earning $400M/year from team uses amortization to minimize taxes
• Real tax bill: Variable, but far less than 37% of true income
GREEN BAY PACKERS (PUBLIC FINANCIALS, 2022):
• Shared revenue from league: $455M
• This is distributed to all 32 teams equally
• Private owners can hide this via amortization and consolidated reporting
WHY THIS MATTERS FOR BETTING:
Owners claim they need betting revenue to offset “rising costs” and “thin margins.”
But the margins aren’t thin. The teams are wildly profitable. Owners just hide
the profits using tax strategies players can’t access. The “we need betting
revenue” argument is a fiction. Owners want betting revenue because it’s another
profit stream — and they can classify it (via Genius equity, ESPN equity, 32
Equity) outside CBA revenue sharing.
The Pattern: Hide, Reclassify, Profit
Three cases. Three decades. One pattern:
1. Hide revenue or suppress compensation.
- 2016: Hide $120M in ticket revenue by reclassifying it as "waived gate"
- 2025: Suppress guaranteed contracts by encouraging owners to limit them
- 2024-2026: Build betting empire (ESPN equity, Genius equity, 32 Equity) outside CBA framework
2. Use creative accounting or structural loopholes.
- 2016: "Waived gate revenue" wasn't a CBA exemption, but owners used it anyway
- Tax avoidance: Amortization creates IRS losses while teams profit billions
- Betting equity: Classify gains as "asset appreciation" or "venture returns," not "All Revenues"
3. Profit while excluding the people who create value.
- Players generate the content. Owners capture ticket revenue.
- Players negotiate contracts. Owners suppress guarantees.
- Players wear RFID chips. NFL sells the data to Genius. Sportsbooks profit. Bettors lose. NFL's Genius equity appreciates. Players and bettors get $0.
4. If caught, minimize or cover up.
- 2016: Call it a "technical accounting issue"
- 2025: Sign confidentiality agreement, hide collusion ruling for 6 months
- Betting conflicts: Don't disclose which owners own sportsbook stakes, don't disclose exact Genius equity percentage, frame data deals as "integrity monitoring"
The pattern is clear. The NFL has institutional experience hiding money from the people who create value. And now the league is doing it again — this time to bettors.
The NFLPA Was Compromised When the Betting Empire Was Built
Here's the timeline that matters:
February 2024: NFL closes ESPN equity deal (10% stake, $3B value)
July 2025: Lloyd Howell resigns as NFLPA Executive Director amid collusion cover-up and federal probes
August 2025-present: NFLPA leaderless, David White interim ED, federal investigations ongoing
June 2025: NFL extends Genius Sports deal through 2030 (additional equity warrants)
December 2025: DraftKings Predictions (prediction markets) launch in 38 states
The NFL spent 18 months (February 2024 - February 2026) building a shadow betting empire while the NFLPA was in crisis.
And the union should have been fighting every step:
- ESPN equity classification: Should be "All Revenues," not asset sale
- NGS data ownership: Players should own their biometric data
- Genius equity conflicts: NFL owns largest stake in company distributing player data to sportsbooks
- 32 Equity returns: Venture fund gains built on NFL leverage should be shared with players
- Prediction markets: New revenue stream, CBA doesn't address it
But the NFLPA was leaderless. The Executive Director had resigned. Federal investigations were ongoing. Player trust was shattered.
The NFL didn't just build the betting system. The league built it during the exact period when the union was least able to fight back.
That's not a coincidence. That's strategy.
NFLPA TIMELINE (CRISIS):
• July 2023: Lloyd Howell becomes NFLPA Executive Director
• Jan 2025: Collusion ruling issued (Goodell suppressed guaranteed contracts)
• Jan-June 2025: Howell hides ruling from players (confidentiality agreement with NFL)
• June 2025: Ruling leaks, players furious
• July 2025: Howell resigns amid federal probes into NFLPA finances
• Aug 2025-present: David White interim ED, no permanent replacement
• Federal investigations ongoing (fund misuse, conflicts, mismanagement)
NFL TIMELINE (BETTING EMPIRE):
• Feb 2024: ESPN equity deal closes (NFL gets 10%, $3B value)
• April 2021: Genius Sports exclusive data deal (extended 2023, 2025)
• June 2025: Genius deal extended through 2030 (NFL gets 9.5M more warrants)
• Dec 2025: DraftKings Predictions launch (38 states, prediction markets)
• 2022-2025: 32 Equity investments continue (Clear, PlayMetrics, others)
THE OVERLAP:
NFL built ESPN equity structure, extended Genius deal, launched prediction
markets, and continued 32 Equity investments during exact period (July 2025-
Feb 2026) when NFLPA was leaderless and under federal investigation.
WHAT THE NFLPA SHOULD HAVE BEEN FIGHTING:
• ESPN equity classification (should be “All Revenues”)
• NGS data ownership (players should own their biometric data)
• Genius conflicts (NFL owns company selling player data to sportsbooks)
• 32 Equity returns (venture gains should be shared with players)
• Prediction markets (new revenue stream, CBA doesn’t address)
WHAT THE NFLPA WAS ACTUALLY DOING:
• Covering up collusion ruling
• Dealing with Executive Director resignation
• Managing federal investigations
• Searching for permanent ED (still ongoing as of Feb 2026)
The NFL didn’t just build a system to exclude players. The league built it
when the union was least able to fight back.
What This Means for the 2027 CBA
The 2027 CBA negotiation will be unlike any labor fight in NFL history — not because of the dollar amounts (though those are massive), but because of what the fight is actually about.
In 2011, the fight was traditional: owners wanted to pay players less, players wanted more. Both sides negotiated over the revenue split (how much of "All Revenues" players get) and working conditions (practice hours, offseason programs, etc.).
In 2027, the fight will be about what counts as revenue in the first place.
The NFLPA will walk in and say:
- ESPN equity should count as "All Revenues" ($1.46B at stake over 10 years)
- Biometric data licensing should be shared with players ($300M+/year at stake)
- 32 Equity returns should count as "All Revenues" ($2.1B+ at stake)
- Prediction market revenue should be addressed in the new CBA
The NFL will say: "None of this is revenue. It's equity appreciation, data licensing, venture returns. The CBA doesn't say we have to share any of it."
And the NFL will be technically correct. The 2020 CBA doesn't explicitly address any of these revenue streams. They didn't exist (or weren't significant) when the CBA was negotiated.
But the historical pattern shows the NFL has always found ways to exclude money from player compensation:
- 2016: Reclassified ticket revenue to avoid sharing
- 2025: Suppressed guaranteed contracts to limit payouts
- 2024-2026: Built betting empire structured to fall outside CBA definitions
The 2027 fight will determine whether the NFLPA can force reclassification — or whether the NFL's creative accounting wins again.
And the union is starting from a position of weakness. No permanent Executive Director. Federal investigations ongoing. Player trust shattered. The NFL built the system while the union was compromised.
History suggests the house wins. But the stakes have never been this high.
The Pattern Applied to Bettors
Posts 1-4 documented how the NFL built a betting system designed to extract value from bettors:
- NFL owns Genius Sports (largest shareholder)
- NGS data gives sportsbooks information bettors don't have
- House edge doubled, SGPs have 4x worse odds, $1.37B extra profit in 2024
- Sportsbooks see plays 10-52 seconds before TV viewers
Post 5 shows this isn't new. It's the same pattern the NFL has used on players for decades:
Hide value. Reclassify it. Profit. Exclude the people who created it.
Players created the content. NFL hid ticket revenue.
Players negotiate contracts. NFL suppressed guarantees.
Players wear RFID chips. NFL sells the data. Sportsbooks profit. Bettors lose. NFL's equity appreciates.
The pattern is institutional. And it's being applied to a new target: bettors.
Post 6 will ask: why didn't regulators stop this? And Post 7 will show what happens when they don't.
WHAT’S CONFIRMED (Primary Sources):
• 2016 ticket revenue case: $120M+ withheld, $50M player loss, arbitrator Stephen Burbank ruling, repayment ordered — confirmed by multiple sources including Sportico, ESPN, arbitration summaries
• 2025 collusion ruling: 61-page decision, Goodell/Pash encouraged suppression of guarantees, Lloyd Howell confidentiality agreement, June 2025 leak, July 2025 resignation — confirmed by sports media, legal analyses
• Federal probes into NFLPA: Ongoing investigations into fund misuse, conflicts, mismanagement — confirmed by multiple reports
• Tax avortization (ProPublica 2021): IRS amortization rules, 15-year depreciation of intangible assets, Green Bay Packers $455M shared revenue (2022) — public financial data
• Timeline overlap: ESPN deal Feb 2024, Genius extension June 2025, Howell resignation July 2025, DraftKings Predictions Dec 2025 — all confirmed dates
WHAT’S INFERRED (Clearly Labeled):
• “NFL built system while union was compromised”: Our characterization of the timeline overlap, not a claim of intentional coordination
• “Pattern of hiding money”: Our editorial conclusion connecting three separate cases across different contexts
• “Applied to bettors”: Our thesis connecting historical player cases to current betting structure
WHY THIS MATTERS:
The NFL has institutional experience excluding value creators from compensation. The 2016 case, 2025 collusion, and tax strategies prove the pattern. Now the same pattern is applied to betting: hide conflicts, reclassify revenue, profit while excluding those who create value (players generate content, bettors fund the system).
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