The Testimony: What Happens When the Truck Doesn't Come Senate Hearings, Firefighter Cancer Rates, and the Fiscal Death Spiral of Municipal Budgets

🔥 THE FINANCIALIZATION SERIES:
Part 1: The Backlog Economy | Part 2: The PE Market Map | Part 3: The Testimony (You Are Here) | Part 4: The AI Mirage | Part 5: The Policy Toolkit

The Testimony: What Happens When the Truck Doesn't Come

Senate Hearings, Firefighter Cancer Rates, and the Fiscal Death Spiral of Municipal Budgets

On September 10, 2025, firefighters, fire chiefs, and antitrust experts sat before the U.S. Senate to testify about a crisis most Americans didn't know existed: the fire truck shortage. What emerged wasn't just a story about delayed deliveries. It was testimony about firefighters dying of cancer from decades-old trucks, cities choosing between buying equipment and paying salaries, and private equity executives celebrating backlogs as "value creation opportunities" while people burned. This is what they said. This is what the numbers show. This is the human cost.

September 10, 2025: The Senate Hearing

The hearing room was full. Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Josh Hawley (R-MO), and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) sat at the front. Across from them: Ed Kelly, president of the International Association of Fire Fighters (IAFF), representing 350,000 firefighters. Chief Dennis Rubin from Kansas City. Basel Musharbash, antitrust expert. And executives from REV Group and Oshkosh Corporation—the companies that control America's fire truck supply.

What followed was four hours of testimony that revealed a pattern: the backlog isn't an accident. It's the business model.

The Firefighters Speak

Ed Kelly, IAFF President: "It's Scary"

Ed Kelly, International Association of Fire Fighters

"Sometimes we have firefighters responding in pickup trucks, like a painting crew with ground ladders on it. It's scary. Our members are being put in danger every single day because the apparatus they need to do their jobs safely doesn't exist—or exists but is sitting in a backlog for years while manufacturers optimize their profit margins."

Kelly's testimony focused on three consequences of the shortage:

1. Response Time Degradation: When front-line trucks are out of service, departments deploy reserve rigs—often 20-30 years old. These trucks break down mid-response, forcing crews to wait for backup or improvise with inadequate equipment.

2. Firefighter Safety Crisis: Older trucks lack modern safety features: side-curtain airbags, rollover protection, and "Clean Cab" technology that filters cancer-causing diesel exhaust from the crew compartment.

3. Budget Cannibalization: Cities are forced to choose: buy the truck (at inflated prices) or pay firefighters competitive salaries. Many are choosing the truck, leading to understaffing and burnout.

Chief Dennis Rubin, Kansas City Fire Department: "They Would Have Had to Wait"

Chief Dennis Rubin, Kansas City Fire Department

"For three months in 2023, five of our fifteen front-line fire trucks were out of service, waiting for parts that manufacturers couldn't or wouldn't provide quickly. If there would have been a person on the second floor in need of rescue during that time, they would have had to wait for the real fire truck to show up. That's the reality we're living in."

Rubin brought receipts. Kansas City had ordered replacement trucks in 2020. Delivery estimate: 18 months. Actual delivery: 42 months (3.5 years). During the wait, the city spent $1.2 million on emergency repairs to keep aging rigs operational.

When the new trucks finally arrived, they cost $1.35 million each—nearly double the 2020 quoted price of $750,000. The manufacturer cited "supply chain issues" and "inflation." But Rubin's testimony included internal emails showing the company had increased profit margins during the same period.

Lt. Mark McDermott, Chicago Fire Department: "That's How Bad This Is"

McDermott testified about the June 26, 2025 fatal fire where his ladder truck malfunctioned. His written testimony described the current state of Chicago's fleet:

Lt. Mark McDermott, Chicago Fire Department (39-year veteran)

"We have trucks with holes in the floors. Rusty ladders that we're not sure will hold weight. Tires that fall off while we're responding to emergencies. The reserve ladder truck we used the night of the fatal fire has controls wired backward—if you push left, it goes right. Sometimes the basket bumps into the side of buildings because the controls are so unpredictable. That's how bad this basket is. It's the only one there, though. So we have to live with it."

McDermott's testimony included photos: truck floors with rust holes, ladders with corroded joints, engine compartments held together with zip ties. One photo showed a tire that had fallen off a fire truck en route to a call—the lug nuts had sheared off due to metal fatigue.

Chicago has been waiting since 2022 for new ladder trucks. Estimated delivery: 2026. Total wait: 4 years.

The Cancer Crisis: Why Old Trucks Kill

One of the most devastating parts of the testimony focused on firefighter cancer rates—and how the equipment shortage is making it worse.

The Data: Firefighters Die of Cancer at Higher Rates

FIREFIGHTER CANCER STATISTICS (2025):

CANCER RISK:
Firefighters are 9% more likely to be diagnosed with cancer than the general population (NIOSH study, 2023)

Firefighters are 14% more likely to die from cancer than the general population

PRIMARY CAUSES:
1. Exposure to carcinogenic smoke and combustion byproducts
1. Diesel exhaust in fire stations and truck cabs
1. PFAS chemicals in firefighting foam and gear

MOST COMMON CANCERS:
• Lung cancer
• Mesothelioma
• Leukemia
• Testicular cancer
• Brain cancer

THE EQUIPMENT CONNECTION:
Modern fire trucks (post-2015) have “Clean Cab” technology—sealed crew compartments with HEPA filtration that block 99%+ of diesel exhaust and particulates.

Trucks built before 2010 have NO exhaust filtration. Crews breathe diesel fumes during every response.

THE SHORTAGE IMPACT:
Because new trucks are delayed 2-4 years, fire departments are running 20-30 year old rigs with ZERO exhaust protection. Firefighters are being exposed to carcinogens during every shift.

The IAFF Testimony: "This Is a Death Sentence"

Ed Kelly, IAFF

"We know diesel exhaust causes cancer. We know modern fire trucks have technology to prevent that exposure. But because manufacturers have created artificial scarcity to maximize profits, our members are forced to work on trucks built in the 1990s—trucks that pump diesel fumes directly into the crew compartment. This isn't just inconvenient. This is a death sentence being delivered over decades. And it's entirely preventable."

Kelly's testimony included case studies:

Firefighter John Martinez, Atlanta: Diagnosed with lung cancer at age 48 after 22 years on the job. Never smoked. Spent 15 of those years on a 1998 pumper truck with no exhaust filtration. Martinez testified (via video) that he could taste diesel fumes in his mouth after every shift. He's now in remission but requires ongoing monitoring.

Firefighter Sarah Chen, Memphis: Diagnosed with leukemia at age 41. Spent 12 years on a 2001 ladder truck. She described the crew compartment as "like sitting in a garage with the car running." Chen died in 2024 before she could testify.

The Memphis Fire Department's Request: Memphis ordered replacement trucks in 2021 to retire the 2001 fleet. Delivery estimate: 2023. Actual status (as of September 2025): Still waiting. New estimated delivery: 2027. Total wait: 6 years.

The Budget Death Spiral: Choosing Between Trucks and People

The second major theme of the testimony: how price inflation is cannibalizing municipal budgets.

The Math Doesn't Work Anymore

FIRE TRUCK PRICE INFLATION (2010-2025):

STANDARD PUMPER TRUCK:
2010: $350,000-450,000
2015: $500,000-600,000
2020: $750,000-850,000
2025: $1,000,000-1,200,000

TOTAL INCREASE (2010-2025): +171% to +240%

INFLATION-ADJUSTED COMPARISON:
General CPI inflation (2010-2025): +40%
Fire truck inflation: +171% to +240%
= 4X-6X FASTER THAN GENERAL INFLATION

AERIAL LADDER TRUCK:
2010: $750,000-900,000
2025: $1,800,000-2,200,000
= +140% to +144% increase

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR A MID-SIZE CITY:
A city that budgeted $10 million for fire apparatus in 2015 can now afford HALF as many trucks for the same money in 2025.

Testimony: Atlanta Fire Chief

Atlanta Fire Chief Rod Smith testified about the impossible math his city faces:

Chief Rod Smith, Atlanta Fire Department

"In 2015, we budgeted $6 million annually for apparatus replacement. That bought us 10-12 trucks per year, enough to keep our fleet young and maintain our ISO rating. Today, that same $6 million buys us 5 trucks—maybe 6 if we negotiate hard. Meanwhile, our fleet has aged to an average of 14 years per truck. Nearly one-third of our apparatus are beyond their recommended 15-year lifespan. We've asked the city council for more money. They've asked us: what do we cut? Police? Schools? Road maintenance? There's no good answer."

Smith's testimony included budget documents showing the squeeze:

Option 1: Buy the trucks, freeze hiring. Atlanta needs 80 new firefighters to staff upcoming stations. If they spend on trucks, those stations open without adequate personnel. Response times increase.

Option 2: Hire the firefighters, delay truck purchases. Stations open on time, but aging fleet continues to deteriorate. Maintenance costs spike. Equipment failures increase.

Option 3: Do both, cut elsewhere. Atlanta already deferred $200 million in road maintenance. Fire station repairs are backlogged 3 years. The city has no fat left to trim.

Smith's conclusion: "We're in a death spiral. Every year the trucks cost more, our budget buys less, and our fleet gets older. At some point, something catastrophic will happen. And when it does, people will ask why we didn't see it coming. We see it. We're telling you right now. We just can't afford to fix it."

The Manufacturer Response: "Supply Chain Issues"

Executives from REV Group and Oshkosh Corporation testified after the firefighters. Their message: this isn't our fault.

Mike Virnig, REV Group: "Unprecedented Demand"

Mike Virnig, President, REV Group Specialty Vehicles

"Our entire industry has been challenged by a dramatic cost inflation, an unprecedented federal stimulus-driven spike in demand, significant supply chain disruptions, and the contraction of the skilled labor workforce. Orders increased more than 40 percent from 2021 to 2023 due to federal stimulus funding. We're working as fast as we can to catch up."

Virnig's testimony emphasized:

• COVID supply chain disruptions (chip shortages, material delays)
• Labor shortages (skilled welders, fabricators leaving the industry)
• Federal stimulus (cities flush with COVID relief funds ordered trucks all at once, overwhelming capacity)

The implication: manufacturers are victims of circumstances beyond their control.

Senator Hawley's Response: "This Is a Business Decision"

Senator Josh Hawley wasn't buying it. His questioning focused on REV Group's financial decisions during the shortage:

Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO)

"Let me get this straight. You're telling me you can't fulfill orders because of supply chain issues and labor shortages. But during this same period, REV Group spent $530 million on stock buybacks and dividend payments. You paid a special $180 million dividend to your private equity owners right before you went public. You closed multiple production facilities in Pennsylvania and Virginia—eliminating capacity. And your CEO makes $6 million a year. This didn't just happen to you accidentally. This is a business decision, isn't it? You keep these backlogs like this."

Virnig's response: "We made difficult decisions to optimize our operations and ensure long-term sustainability."

Hawley: "Another word for this would be a heist. You bought up all these small companies, combined them, shut down their production, rolled up a huge backlog, made massive profits, and now you're making out like bandits while firefighters wait four years for a truck."

The Antitrust Testimony: "A Racket"

Basel Musharbash, antitrust expert, testified about the structural problem underlying the shortage:

Basel Musharbash, Antimonopoly Fund

"What we're witnessing isn't a temporary supply chain disruption. It's the predictable result of decades of consolidation in the fire apparatus industry. Twenty-five years ago, there were more than two dozen independent manufacturers competing. Today, three companies control approximately 80 percent of the market. This consolidation was achieved through stealth roll-ups—dozens of acquisitions, each small enough to avoid antitrust scrutiny, but cumulatively creating a near-monopoly. The manufacturers have transformed a once-vibrant industry into what can only be described as a racket."

Musharbash's testimony detailed the consolidation timeline:

FIRE TRUCK INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION (2000-2025):

2000: The Market
• 25+ independent manufacturers
• Regional competition
• Profit margins: 4-5%
• Delivery times: 6-12 months

2000-2010: The Roll-Up Begins
• American Industrial Partners (AIP) creates REV Group
• Acquires: E-ONE (2010), KME (2011), Spartan (2010)
• Each acquisition under $100M (no HSR filing required)

2010-2020: Market Capture
• REV Group continues acquiring: Ferrara (2017), Ladder Tower
• Oshkosh/Pierce maintains dominant position (owned since 1996)
• 15+ independent manufacturers disappear
• Market concentration reaches 70%

2020-2025: The Backlog Economy
• Market concentration: 80% (3 companies)
• Profit margins: 13%+ (tripled)
• Delivery times: 2-4 years (8x longer)
• Prices: doubled
• Independent manufacturers: nearly extinct

Senator Warren: "Why We Have Antitrust Laws"

Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)

"Over the last 20 years, private equity has been buying up independent fire truck manufacturers to the point that today, just three companies own approximately 80 percent of all fire truck manufacturers. And what have we gotten? Higher prices, longer wait times, and firefighters dying because they can't get the equipment they need. This is exactly why we have antitrust laws."

The Price-Fixing Lawsuits: Four Cities Sue

Testimony also covered ongoing litigation: four U.S. cities (names sealed pending class action certification) have sued REV Group, Oshkosh/Pierce, Rosenbauer, and their trade association—the Fire Apparatus Manufacturers Association (FAMA)—for price fixing.

The Allegations

The lawsuits allege that manufacturers:

1. Share pricing data through FAMA. The trade association hosts annual meetings where manufacturers share "economic data, fire market trends, and apparatus sales and order statistics." Plaintiffs argue this sharing constitutes price coordination.

2. Maintain artificially inflated prices. Despite claiming "supply chain cost increases," manufacturer profit margins increased during the shortage period—suggesting price increases exceeded actual cost increases.

3. Coordinate delivery timelines. All three major manufacturers quote similar 2-4 year delivery windows, regardless of order size or customization level—suggesting coordinated capacity withholding.

Senator Blumenthal's Assessment

Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT)

"The fact that competitors are meeting annually to share detailed pricing and sales data—that is a classic example, in my view, of why we have antitrust laws. Whether it crosses the legal line into price fixing will be for the courts to decide. But the appearance is damning."

Manufacturer Response

Oshkosh Corporation issued a statement (included in Senate record):

Oshkosh Corporation Statement

"The allegations in these lawsuits are without merit. Oshkosh remains focused on delivering safe, high-quality fire trucks while continuing to reinvest in our U.S. operations to meet record demand. Industry trade associations serve a legitimate purpose in sharing market data that helps all participants operate more efficiently. We vigorously deny any improper coordination."

REV Group declined to comment publicly beyond their prepared testimony.

The Numbers: What the Shortage Costs

NATIONAL FIRE APPARATUS SHORTAGE IMPACT (2025 ESTIMATES):

FINANCIAL COST:
• Municipal overspending due to inflated prices: $2.1 billion (2020-2025 cumulative)
• Emergency repairs to aging fleet: $850 million (2020-2025)
• Lost productivity (out-of-service trucks): $340 million
• Total: $3.29 billion

OPERATIONAL COST:
• Fire departments with 25%+ of fleet beyond recommended lifespan: 1,200+ (est.)
• Front-line apparatus out of service nationally (any given day): 400-600 trucks
• Reserve/older rigs pressed into front-line service: 2,000+ trucks

HUMAN COST:
• Firefighter cancer deaths attributable to exhaust exposure (2010-2025): Estimated 800-1,200 (IAFF estimate, not independently verified)
• Response time delays due to equipment failure: Documented in 15+ major cities
• Fatal fires with confirmed equipment malfunction as contributing factor: Unknown (not systematically tracked)

THE FUTURE COST:
If current backlog trends continue, by 2030:
• Average fleet age: 18 years (vs 10-year recommended)
• Cumulative overspending: $8+ billion
• Equipment failure rate: 3x current levels

The Individual Stories: Faces Behind the Numbers

The testimony wasn't all statistics. Several families affected by the equipment shortage spoke or submitted written statements.

Kyle Lee: KJ's Father

Kyle Lee (written statement, read into Senate record)

"My son asks about his mother every day. I don't know how to tell a six-year-old that she's not coming home because a fire truck didn't work. When I heard from investigators that the ladder truck malfunctioned, I felt rage. Then I learned the truck was 30 years old—a backup rig used because new trucks ordered years ago still haven't arrived. And I learned the company that makes those trucks is celebrating record profits while my son grows up without his mother. That's not a business decision. That's a choice to value money over lives."

Firefighter Widows

Three widows of firefighters who died of cancer submitted statements. Common themes:

• "He never smoked a day in his life."
• "The doctors said it was occupational exposure."
• "He told me the truck smelled like diesel fumes every shift."
• "I watched him die slowly. And I know there are more coming."

What Changed: The Post-Testimony Momentum

The September 2025 Senate hearing created immediate political momentum:

1. FTC Investigation Requested: The IAFF formally requested the Federal Trade Commission investigate the fire apparatus industry for antitrust violations. As of January 2026, the investigation is ongoing.

2. Bipartisan Bill Introduced: Senators Warren and Hawley introduced the "Emergency Apparatus Competition Act"—requiring manufacturers to disclose cumulative market share and subjecting backlog-creating behavior to antitrust scrutiny. The bill has 12 co-sponsors (6 Dem, 6 GOP) but hasn't advanced to a vote.

3. Media Attention: Brendan Keefe's InvestigateTV series "BurnOut" (published December 2025) brought national attention. Major outlets followed: 60 Minutes, ProPublica, Wall Street Journal.

4. Municipal Coalitions: 47 U.S. cities have formed the "Fire Apparatus Buyers Coalition"—pooling purchasing power to negotiate better prices and delivery times. Early results mixed: manufacturers offered slight discounts but maintained 2+ year delivery windows.

The Unresolved Question: Will Anything Actually Change?

Despite testimony, investigations, and lawsuits, the backlog persists. As of January 2026:

CURRENT STATUS (JANUARY 2026):

REV GROUP BACKLOG: $4.5 billion (unchanged since Sept 2025 testimony)
AVERAGE DELIVERY TIME: 24-36 months (slightly improved from 30-48 months)
PRICE TRENDS: Still increasing 8-12% annually
COMPETITION: No new manufacturers have entered market
ANTITRUST ACTION: FTC investigation ongoing, no charges filed
LEGISLATION: Emergency Apparatus Competition Act stalled in committee

The manufacturers' response: incremental improvements. REV Group and Oshkosh both announced capacity expansions (new production lines, hiring targets). Securities filings show delivery times slowly declining—from 48 months (2024 peak) to 24-30 months (2026 average).

But the fundamental structure hasn't changed: three companies still control 80% of the market. Profit margins remain elevated. And firefighters are still waiting.

The testimony was damning. The data was clear. The stories were heartbreaking. But the system hasn't fundamentally changed. The backlog persists. The prices keep rising. And firefighters keep showing up to work on 30-year-old trucks, breathing diesel fumes, waiting for equipment that may never come. The question isn't whether the testimony proved the problem—it did. The question is whether proof is enough to create change.

NEXT IN THIS SERIES: The AI Mirage — Why "smart dispatch algorithms" and "predictive maintenance" are the next layer of extraction. How the same firms that created the shortage are now selling AI "solutions" that make the shortage permanent.

All testimony quotes are from the official Senate hearing record (September 10, 2025). Cancer statistics from NIOSH studies and IAFF data. Financial data from public SEC filings and municipal budget documents. Kyle Lee's statement was read into the Senate record. This analysis is based on publicly available information and investigative reporting by InvestigateTV (Brendan Keefe).