Posts
The Lockout Lens
Post 8: How Battery Models Fund the $2B War Chest
The Hidden Engine Series
By Randy Gipe | February 2026
It’s about power in labor negotiations.
The MLB CBA expires December 1, 2026. Owners are building a ~$2 billion collective war chest (~$75 million per team) to weather a lockout. The MLBPA says a work stoppage is “all but guaranteed.”
Where does that $2 billion come from? Hidden engines like The Battery.
Owners with Battery-style cash flow can afford months without baseball revenue. Players lose paychecks immediately. The leverage gap is structural.
This post connects the economics to the fight—and shows why the next CBA battle will center on the question we’ve been documenting all along: What counts as “revenue”?
The 2026 Lockout: Why It's Coming
⚠️ THE COLLISION (DEC 1, 2026)
Current CBA:
- Ratified March 2022 (after 99-day lockout)
- Expires 11:59 PM ET, December 1, 2026
- No games missed in 2022 (Opening Day barely saved)
Core Issues (2026-2027 Negotiations):
- Owners want: Hard salary cap + floor (like NFL/NBA), end luxury tax system
- Players want: Keep current system (no cap), increase minimum salary, earlier free agency
- Revenue sharing: Big-market teams (Yankees, Dodgers, Mets) want less sharing, small-market teams want more
- Luxury tax (CBT) thresholds: Current ~$244M base (2026), owners want lower, players want higher or eliminated
MLBPA Interim Executive Director Bruce Meyer (Feb 18, 2026):
- "I think a lockout is all but guaranteed at the end of the agreement."
- "The league has pretty much said that."
- "Their strategy in bargaining has always been to put as much pressure on the players as they can to try and create divisions and cracks among our membership. It's never worked. I don't think it ever will work."
Owners' preparation:
- ~$75M per team reserve fund (~$2.25B league-wide)
- Specifically for lost ticket/sponsor/broadcast revenue during lockout
- MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred: Downplays full-season loss risk, but history shows lockouts are leverage tools
How Battery Models Fund Lockout Leverage
The Braves are the clearest example of why owners with hidden engines have structural advantages:
💰 BRAVES LOCKOUT MATH (HYPOTHETICAL 6-MONTH STOPPAGE)
Scenario: Lockout starts Dec 2, 2026, lasts until June 2027 (180 days, no spring training, first half of season lost)
Lost baseball revenue:
- Tickets: ~$90M (half of $180M annual)
- Concessions/merch: ~$35M
- Local media prorated loss: ~$30M (broadcasters don't pay for games not played)
- Sponsorships prorated: ~$20M
- Total baseball loss: ~$175M
Continuing Battery revenue (unaffected by lockout):
- Office rents: Still flowing (leases don't care about baseball)
- Retail rents: Reduced (fewer game-day traffic), but baseline continues
- Hotel: Business travel, regional visitors continue
- Parking: Non-game-day revenue continues (office workers, Battery events)
- Estimated Battery revenue during lockout: $40-50M (6 months)
- Battery Adj. OIBDA: $28-35M (70% margins)
Net owner position:
- Baseball loss: -$175M
- Battery cash: +$28-35M
- Reserve fund: +$75M (from league pool)
- Total cushion: $103-110M
- Net out-of-pocket: -$65-72M
Compare to a team without Battery:
- Baseball loss: -$175M (same)
- Reserve fund: +$75M
- Net out-of-pocket: -$100M
The Battery reduces lockout pain by ~35-40%. Braves ownership can afford to wait longer, push harder in negotiations.
Scale this across MLB:
- ~10-12 teams have Battery-style models (Braves, Cardinals, Rangers, Phillies building, etc.)
- Another ~5-8 have media empires (Yankees YES, Dodgers local TV deals)
- Collectively, these teams generate ~$500M-1B annually in hidden-engine cash
- This funds the $2B war chest + ongoing owner expenses during lockout
The Players' Disadvantage: Immediate Paycheck Loss
Players have no equivalent cushion:
During a lockout:
- No paychecks (contracts suspended, no pay for games not played)
- Union strike fund: MLBPA has reserves, but limited (~$100-200M estimated, split across 1,200+ players)
- Per-player cushion: ~$80k-160k from union if 6-month stoppage (helps, but nowhere near salaries)
- Individual savings: Varies wildly (superstars fine, minimums struggle, mid-tier squeezed)
Pressure timeline:
- Months 1-2: Players unified, motivated (principle matters)
- Months 3-4: Cracks form (younger/lower-paid players feel financial strain)
- Months 5-6: Union pressure to settle (risk losing full season, careers shortened)
Owners can wait longer because:
- Hidden engines keep cash flowing (Battery, YES Network, etc.)
- Reserve funds cover specific lockout losses
- Franchise values appreciate regardless (asset holds value even if one season lost)
- Many owners have diversified wealth (not dependent on baseball income)
The Revenue Definition Battle: What's at Stake
The 2026-2027 CBA negotiations will center on what counts as "revenue" for luxury tax and sharing purposes.
📊 THE HIDDEN ENGINE QUESTION
Current system (CBA 2022-2026):
- "Club revenue" = tickets, local media, team sponsorships, concessions, merch
- Real estate development (Battery) = excluded
- Media companies owned by teams (YES Network) = partially excluded (complex carve-outs)
- ~48% of local club revenue goes to MLB revenue-sharing pool
- Luxury tax calculated on payroll vs. defined revenue thresholds
What players could demand (2026-2027 negotiations):
- "Expand 'revenue' to include all team-controlled development"
- Example: Count Battery $98M as "club revenue" → ~$47M goes to sharing pool, raises luxury tax thresholds
- Rationale: "If owners benefit from stadium-anchored development enabled by public subsidies, players should share in that upside"
What owners will argue:
- "Real estate is separate business operations, not baseball revenue"
- "Development risk is owner-borne (construction, debt, lease-up) — players don't take downside, shouldn't get upside"
- "Segment accounting separates Battery legally (ASC 280 rules)"
- "Precedent set in every prior CBA — non-baseball ventures excluded"
Likelihood of players winning this: Very low (5-10%)
- Owners have too much structural leverage (lockout cushion)
- Precedent strongly favors owners (decades of CBA history)
- Players would have to give up massive concessions elsewhere (salary cap?) to get this
- Public/legal framework already established (segment reporting, ring-fence from Post 3)
Why the Battery Model Shifts Leverage Permanently
Every team that builds a Battery-style engine gains permanent labor leverage:
Before Battery (traditional baseball-only revenue):
- Team revenue ~$300-500M (tickets, media, sponsorships)
- Lockout = total revenue loss
- Owners feel pain, pressure to settle quickly
- Players have some leverage (owners need games to generate revenue)
After Battery (hybrid model):
- Team revenue ~$300-500M baseball + $50-100M real estate
- Lockout = baseball revenue loss, but real estate continues
- Owners cushioned, can wait longer
- Players' leverage reduced (owners less desperate for settlement)
The compounding effect across MLB:
- 2017: Only a few teams had Battery models (Cardinals Ballpark Village, early examples)
- 2026: 10-15 teams have Battery-style or media empires
- 2035 (projected): 20-25 teams will have integrated development
- Result: Owners' collective lockout tolerance increases every CBA cycle
The 2026-2027 Likely Outcome
Based on structural leverage and historical patterns:
🔮 MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
Timeline:
- Dec 1, 2026: CBA expires, owners lock out players immediately
- Dec 2026 - Feb 2027: Negotiations drag (off-season, less public pressure)
- March 2027: Deadline pressure (Opening Day at risk)
- Late March / Early April 2027: Deal reached, games begin (some spring training games lost, maybe 5-10 regular season games)
Deal terms (predicted):
- Owners get: Slightly lower luxury tax thresholds OR slower growth rate (cost control)
- Players get: Higher minimum salary (+10-15%), some service-time reforms (earlier arbitration/free agency for young stars)
- Revenue sharing: Largely unchanged (owners protect Battery exclusion, players fail to expand definitions)
- No salary cap: Players hold the line (biggest victory for union)
Why this outcome:
- Owners can't get hard cap without giving up too much elsewhere
- Players can't expand revenue definitions without accepting cap (which they won't)
- Both sides settle for incremental changes, preserve core system
- Battery models stay ring-fenced, continue funding owner leverage in future CBAs
Games lost: 5-20 (similar to 2022 lockout)
Fan anger: High, but temporary (always is)
The Long-Term Trend: Owners Winning the Structural Battle
Even if the 2026-2027 CBA is a "draw" (incremental changes, no major breakthroughs), owners are winning the long game:
📈 THE STRUCTURAL SHIFT (2000-2035)
2000s: Players had leverage
- Teams heavily dependent on baseball revenue (tickets, local TV)
- Lockouts hurt owners immediately (no games = no revenue)
- Result: Players won gains (higher minimums, luxury tax stayed soft)
2010s-2020s: Balance shifts
- Battery models emerge (Braves 2017, others follow)
- Media empires mature (YES Network, Dodgers local deals)
- Owners build diversified revenue (reduces baseball dependency)
- Result: 2022 lockout lasted 99 days, owners extracted concessions (playoff expansion, slower salary growth)
2030s (projected): Owners dominant
- 20-25 teams have Battery-style engines
- Collective owner lockout tolerance = 6-12 months (not 3 months)
- Players' leverage eroded (can't threaten credibly, owners too cushioned)
- Result: Future CBAs favor owners incrementally (salary cap eventually possible if trend continues)
What Fans Should Watch For
When the 2026-2027 negotiations heat up, here are the real issues beneath the rhetoric:
If owners push hard on:
- Hard salary cap: They're betting Battery models give them enough cushion to win a long lockout
- Lower luxury tax thresholds: Same logic, but more achievable
- Reducing revenue-sharing: Big-market teams (Yankees, Dodgers) want to keep more of their scale advantages
If players push hard on:
- Expanding "revenue" definitions: Direct attack on Battery ring-fence (unlikely to succeed)
- Earlier free agency: Gives players leverage sooner (owners resist, reduces team control)
- Higher minimums: Helps younger/lower-paid players (owners can absorb, less costly than other demands)
The tell: How long the lockout lasts signals who has leverage. If it's over in 30-60 days, leverage is balanced. If it drags 90-120+ days, owners feel cushioned enough to wait.
The Bigger Picture: Sports Labor in the Battery Era
The Battery model isn't just changing MLB. It's reshaping sports labor dynamics across leagues:
NFL:
- Hard cap already in place (since 1994)
- Battery-style development less critical (cap controls costs)
- But teams still building (Rams Hollywood Park, Eagles potential) for owner wealth, not labor leverage
NBA:
- Soft cap + luxury tax (like MLB)
- Some arena districts emerging (Clippers new Intuit Dome + development)
- Smaller rosters = less labor pressure than MLB (450 NBA players vs. 1,200+ MLB)
NHL:
- Hard cap (since 2005 lockout)
- Battery models emerging in newer markets (Vegas, Seattle, Nashville)
The trend: Owners in every league are diversifying revenue to reduce dependence on player-driven product. Real estate, media companies, entertainment districts all serve the same purpose: create cash flow that continues if labor negotiations go sideways.
Next: The Complete Synthesis
We've documented the Braves' blueprint, the Phillies' execution, the Eagles' potential, the Yankees' alternative path, and now the lockout leverage it all creates.
Post 9 synthesizes everything: The complete Battery model, the market-size matrix, the structural moats, the break points where the system could change, and what comes next for sports ownership economics.
This is the finale—the 200,000-foot view of the hidden engine.
SOURCES
2026 CBA Expiration & Lockout Prep:
- Bruce Meyer (MLBPA) quotes: Feb 18, 2026 statement (ESPN, NY Post, Sports Business Journal coverage)
- Owners' reserve fund: Multiple reports (Athletic, Sports Business Journal) on ~$75M/team preparation
- 2022 lockout context: MLB official timeline, historical coverage
Revenue Sharing & Luxury Tax:
- MLB CBA 2022-2026: Article XXIV (Revenue Sharing), luxury tax thresholds (public summaries, sports business analyses)
- ~48% local revenue-sharing: Industry standard estimate (exact formula proprietary but widely reported)
Braves Lockout Math:
- Based on 2025 actual revenue (Posts 2-4 data from SEC filings)
- Battery independence during lockout: Structural analysis (office leases, hotel, retail continue regardless of games)
Historical Labor Context:
- 2021-22 lockout: 99 days, settled March 10, 2022 (MLB official, media coverage)
- 1994-95 strike: 232 days, World Series canceled (historical records)
- Comparative leverage: Academic analyses of sports labor economics
Structural Trends:
- Battery model spread: Public announcements (Rangers, Rams, Cardinals, Phillies per earlier posts)
- Future projections: Extrapolated from current trajectory (new stadiums include development as standard)
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