Triangulum Intel and Strategic Analysis: Volume 1

Triangulum Intel and Strategic Analysis

Traversing the Global East-West | North-South Spectrum

From the minds of StratRisks.com and PhantomReport.com

Volume 1

Egypt: The Lynchpin of the Middle East
Egypt and her strategic waterways are the heart of the Arab economy. Wars have been waged in the past based upon these important straits. If Egypt falls to militarism or radical Islam like its neighbors Sudan and Libya, numerous Arab and western nations will suffer massive economic loss. You can have unlimited oil and LNG on hand but you need safe shipping routes in which to transport it. With this understanding Egypt is not truly sovereign and that is why it is in a constant state of flux. Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran and other actors and countries are in the midst of a covert battle royal to influence Egyptian affairs.

It is no coincidence that crude oil prices rose above $100 on the very day General Al Sisi overthrew the government of President Mohammad Morsi in Egypt. Supply risk is a constant fear in an oil market where global spare capacity (mainly Saudi) is only one million barrels a day, or mbd. Even though Egypt is not a major oil exporter or a member of the Opec, it has the Suez Canal and the Suez Mediterranean, or Sumed pipeline, where oil tankers transport 2.5mbd of mainly Gulf crude to refineries in Europe and North America. The Suez Canal is one of global and gas’ critical chokepoints, as geopolitically significant as the Straits of Hormuz and Malacca. –Khaleej Times

It was a foregone conclusion that a nation as important to the world as Egypt is would not be left in the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood. The brutality of the Mubarak regime was well known, most considered the region stable and their important business continued uninterrupted. Israel’s intelligence apparatus monitors the tectonic shifts in Egypt in relation to the Gaza Strip. If Egypt sneezes, the Gaza Strip gets a cold. Israel would find itself under a serious threat if the Egyptian leadership had friendly relations with militant Islamic groups like Hamas. It is a dangerous yet delicate balance.

Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has warned Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu that Egypt presents more of a security danger than Iran. “We have to be prepared for all possibilities,” the Foreign Minister warned the Prime Minister. He suggested that the IDF create three or four southern divisions in the wake of a social and economic deterioration in Egypt and the increasing number of Egyptian troops in the Sinai Peninsula. –Times of Israel

The one who commands the Suez Strait controls a major portion of the global economy substantially dependent upon trade and commerce. Washington’s relationship with Egypt angled as humanitarian aid ends up being billions of dollars annually in foreign military financing grants supplying Egyptian military apparatus with heavy weapons used to control and retain the allegiance of the uprising population and purge any subversion. The interdependent relationship between U.S. and Egyptian military is coherent, billions of dollars to maintain Egypt’s military elite-led government, the uninterrupted military coordination and movement of the regions oil resources to the United States and Europe and the establishment of a U.S. military bridgehead in a geo-strategic location for future military operations or conflicts in regions rich in hydrocarbon deposits, the Middle East and the Caspian Basin.

For U.S. military planners, the sudden loss of access to Egypt would present a double problem. Without Egypt, they would find their options for shipping air and sea cargo, refueling and repairing aircraft and consolidating troop movements narrowed to those along the Persian Gulf. The loss of landing rights in Egypt, for example, might mean that in a crisis, wide-body jets, each carrying hundreds of troops, would have to fly directly into congested Persian Gulf airfields, rather than into Cairo West, from which smaller transports would ferry troops into action. And those Persian Gulf facilities are increasingly vulnerable to Iranian ballistic missiles.

Even now, according to Quadrennial Defense Review, the major strategic review completed by the Pentagon last year, U.S. forces need access to bases “more resilient than today’s in the face of attacks.’’ The study said planners are looking for ways to fortify those bases, with missile defense being a high priority, but protecting high-value airfields and ports where troops are disembarking is clearly difficult.

In war-fighting terms, the loss of Egypt might also force a greater reliance on long-range strike assets — strike fighters, bombers and missiles — at a time when the U.S. arsenal of such weapons is limited. In a Mideast war, fighters once might have launched from Egyptian airfields; without Egypt, they’d have to operate from carriers — themselves vulnerable — or fly exhausting air-refueled missions from distant land bases in Turkey or Europe. And longer missions mean fewer daily sorties.–Politics Daily

Further Study:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/saudiarabia/10178117/Saudi-Arabia-re-emerges-as-powerful-Middle-East-player.html
http://cumberlink.com/news/local/egypt-s-army-chief-trained-at-army-war-college/article_c2b8a884-e763-11e2-b90a-001a4bcf887a.html
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/07/egypt-coup-economic-turkish-economist-interview.html
http://world.time.com/2013/07/06/the-would-be-prime-minister-could-elbaradei-stabilize-egypt/
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-Issues/2013/0710/Friends-again-Saudi-Arabia-UAE-jump-in-to-aid-Egypt
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/76188/World/Region/Qatar-losing-Mideast-ground-to-Saudi-diplomacy-Exp.aspx
http://www.sundayszaman.com/news-320667-impacts-of-the-coup-in-egypt-on-middle-eastern-dynamics.html
http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C5113B501179CB/
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/07/iran-morsi-coup-advantage-syria-gaza-hamas-us-obama-mccain.html
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/biz/inside.asp?xfile=/data/internationbusiness/2013/July/internationbusiness_July57.xml&section=internationbusiness
Terrorists? There’s gold, uranium and oil in them thar hills
Cohorts of special operation forces and intelligence agencies are covertly engaging North Africa by employing combinations of political, economic, psychological and military warfare to undermine unstable governments or nations actively engaged in civil wars through an ongoing inter-agency counter-terrorism plan, Operation Enduring Freedom – Trans Sahara.
France and allies have revitalized a military campaign for North Africa promoting security for the protection of foreign economic interests, uranium sites, gold mining and oil reserves.French military is tighten it’s grip on North Africa by supporting Areva corporate interests to preserve a ’French’ dominant sphere in the region by providing vital security for the key strategic Imouraren uranium mine and oil resource centers. Canadian mining companies are actively involved in Mali gold mining and other ventures with a large bulk of the investment summed up in one word: GOLD.

French-owned Total SA already draws 28% of its oil output from Africa. The presence of significant uranium deposits in neighbouring Niger is also important. France is reliant on nuclear energy for 78% of its electricity, and by some accounts Niger provides for almost 40% of France’s total uranium consumption-World Outline

The strategic mobility of French Special Forces, UK Special Forces , AFRICOM, Defense Intelligence Agency, Central Intelligence Agency, Canadian Special Forces and European Union Special forces have built up their intelligence and war fighting skills by conducting quick and surgical strike operations in Libya, Mali , the Sahel and MENA. The political and military agenda? Wealth protection, monopolize strategic raw materials and energy resources, energy security of the European Union, reduce dependence on Russian oil-natural gas with completion of the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline and counteract Chinese encroachment into African territory rich with hydrocarbons and mineral deposits.

China increasingly looking to Africa for iron-ore supply – Potentially, there are 35-billion tons of direct-shipping iron-ore available in Africa, which amounts to a production potential of between 400-million tons and 600-million tons a year in the region-Mining Weekly

Currently, the 27 E.U. member states import 85 percent of their oil needs and 65 percent of their natural gas. It is estimated that by 2030 those numbers will be 95 percent and 85 percent, respectively. E.U. countries have no oil and gas production.-Worldpress

China’s influence in Africa, characterized by large sums of money with few strings attached in exchange for mineral concessions, is a concern for the US. This rivalry may come to shape the future of a continent already marked out like an imperial jigsaw puzzle- Independent.

It is interesting that orthodox military operations conducted during “Operation Serval” have done absolutely nothing but turn the region into a big black hole of uncertainty, blow back central with printed permanent war in the Sahel. The military’s objectives are to position forces to ensue stable perimeters of high value geographic areas, control risks and the neutralization of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and network affiliates. Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius announced the proposal to keep permanent combat forces in Mali and actively seeking to install a military base in Libya. As the U.S. continues to portray the illusion of a secondary role in the geographic scope of conflict in North Africa, U.S. AFRICOM and German KSK have been active for years in Mali. Cloaked in secrecy, the U.S. military drone base in Niger provides a strategic foothold to conduct ISR missions to target and terminate high valued targets with predator drone programs. Pentagon/ private mercenary in and out warfare tactics with incidents and operational details not disclosed to the U.S. public by means of the US Army seeking private contractors for African commando transportation and multitudes of U.S. military contractors eyeing Africa. The cohesive EU, NATO, Pentagon and mercenary force campaigns will continue under the guise of peace-keeping operations to take advantage of social discontent, ferment sectarian division and political regime change.
The French and the British in their heart of hearts still believe that they can control the state of affairs of various countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Sykes and Picot have long since died and numerous rebellions have taken place to wrestle power away from Europe. Yet European influence still lingers like a ghost and their geopolitical desires are still as strong as they were in the 1900’s. Nicolas Sarkozy, the former president of France introduced a regional framework called the ’Union of the Mediterranean’. This powerplay could transform the MENA region into a satellite superstate for the ultimate benefit of Europeans and Americans.

The geopolitical and political motives behind this proposal seemed fairly obvious at first sight. Politically, Sarkozy’s interest in setting up the Mediterranean Union would be to offer Turkey an alternative to full EU membership. This is certainly how the plan is being peddled in Paris. The second geopolitical motive would be to reinforce France’s weight on the world stage.

The creation of a political “Club Med” is perhaps a typical example of the French love of the politics of the grand gesture, but there seems little doubt that it would institutionalise France’s leadership role in an area where she has huge historical ties and considerable political influence, from North Africa to Lebanon and Syria.

Perhaps the motives behind the Mediterranean Union lie elsewhere, therefore. The plan, indeed, bears some resemblance to the “Greater Middle East” project favoured by the American neo-conservative strategists.

Even more striking is the resemblance between Sarkozy’s plan and the existing Mediterranean Dialogue set up by NATO in 1994. The relevant page (in English, French, Hebrew and Arabic) can be seen here. Numerous Maghreb states have already signed partnership agreements with NATO. In other words, the Mediterranean Union would be but a political superstructure over a military organisation which already exists and which is under US leadership. –Brussels Journal

The so-called ’Arab spring’ has changed the political landscape and those countries that weren’t so friendly to Europe might have had a change of heart. Interestingly enough, the conflict in Libya, the current proxy war in Syria, and the second coup in Egypt help Europe work towards their EuroMed project tremendously. North African nations like Libya, Algeria and Morocco are assisting Europe to establish a new oil and gas route that will lessen the dependence on Russia. While the United States has made a pivot towards Eurasia, Europe is selling weaponry to Arab states who hope to secure their borders for any eventualities with Iran or Syria. The problem with these uprisings in the MENA region is that in the minds of Arab youth they have no real yardstick that would measure any progress and could be easily manipulated for the geoeconomic and geopolitical goals of foreign states. Europe could start the wildfire that could clear a path to economic security and integration or for their own demise.
Further Study:
http://www.enpi-info.eu/medportal/news/latest/33827/Euromed-Survey-places-Egypt-as-a-key-power-in-the-geopolitical-redesign-of-the-Mediterranean
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/13/43-nation-mediterranean-u_n_112394.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/06/world/africa/mali-france-proposes-permanent-force.html
http://www.trust.org/item/?map=eu-starts-push-for-new-trade-pacts-with-north-africa/
http://qz.com/94950/while-investors-flee-emerging-markets-the-middle-east-and-north-africa-are-emerging-as-oases/
East and West Empire Saturation – Where and when will they collide?
The operational modalities of the United States as the ’police of the world’ are viewed by many with envy and with disgust. When the United States is advancing its economic interests its massive military power projects far ahead of any diplomatic efforts. That is a luxury that others do not have. The US has benefited from this arrangement immensely and rival nations are attempting to reshape this model adding their own cultural sensibilities. As the old adage goes, ’talk softly but carry a big stick’.

In his December 1823 message to Congress, US president James Monroe had launched the doctrine that would bear his name. As the Spanish empire collapsed, enticing the British to fill the void, he defied European intervention in the affairs of the Americas. It would have been of benefit to all had the US not, under the guise of fighting against external colonialism, focused its foreign policy on constituting a continental block that the US itself hoped to dominate.

Without worrying about credible justification, the US intervened militarily in Puerto Rico (1824), Mexico (1845 and 1847), Nicaragua (1857 and 1860) and in the province of Panama (1860). Alarmed, the governments of Chile, Bolivia, Ecuador, New Grenada (Colombia) and Peru met in Lima in 1847 to examine this interventionism. The outbreak of war against Mexico in 1848 justified their concern: from Texas to California, the US annexed half Mexico’s territory. After its own Civil War, the US became aware of its huge power. From 1880, having conquered the West, it turned its attention to the South. During General Grant’s presidency (1869-77), the theory of “manifest destiny” made clear US ambitions: to control the continent. The US spoke about the “defence of democracy” softly, and sent in the marines by way of a big stick. Besides the occasional military intervention, there were invasions followed by establishment of protectorates. --Le Monde

Many nations have been quietly sitting on the sidelines watching the United States operating with righteous impunity. Beasts from the east are looking to not only stand up to America but slowly chip away at their turf. China’s is following bits of the US playbook when it comes to their mixed-market economy, while rapidly building up their military force. China is leveraging their military to intimidate any who would interfere with their economic aspirations while appearing meek and adamantly denying all accusations.

Evidence compiled by The Sunday Age reveals that, in its relations with Australia, China uses its power to co-opt support and silence critics. Sometimes, it involves intimidation and threats. In international relations, there is soft power and there is hard power. Exercising it is how governments get their way. China’s communist rulers are no different. They legitimately use soft power to win foreign friends and gain international influence. The tools of soft power are culture, education, public diplomacy, business links and people-to-people contacts. Then there’s hard power — overt pressure or threats. In China’s case, its hard power carries more punch than most and, in relations with Australia, it’s backed by lots of money. –The Age

The focus on peace, development, and cooperation was welcomed and continues as the main emphasis in Chinese foreign policy; but it has been accompanied in recent years by repeated use of coercion and intimidation well beyond internationally accepted norms in support of Chinese broad maritime claims in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. In short, the principles and praxis of Chinese foreign and security policy have evolved and continue to change, reflecting a mix of domestic priorities, challenges and considerations, as well as treatment and acceptance by neighbors and others abroad. –CSIS

China has been building a massive economic engine due to the needs of its gargantuan population. There has been subtle hints of a coming insurrection within China due to pollution, corruption, land grabbing, limited water supply, and inflation of food prices. Over the last few years there have been major riots that have instilled fear within the leadership of China. China is digging its heels into the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean to apply its new economic and military grand strategy. Building the new silk road between sea lines to ensure proper transport of its imports and military infrastructure. China is weary of both Russia and India and do not want to find themselves cut off from the rest of the world. A military or financial blockade in the straits by its enemies or past allies would be debilitating.
Further Study:
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/columns/10-Mar-2013/strategic-dynamics-of-gwadar-and-ip?
http://tribune.com.pk/story/559370/building-on-ties-new-premier-indicates-plan-to-link-gwadar-with-china/
http://www.sunday-guardian.com/news/area-under-chinese-control-rich-in-thorium
http://www.ndu.edu/press/chinas-ace-in-the-hole.html
http://www.npr.org/2012/04/04/149611352/dreams-of-a-mining-future-on-hold-in-afghanistan
http://www.defensemedianetwork.com/stories/rare-earths-provide-critical-weapons-support/
http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013/07/13/news/profit/gwadar-the-future-trade-hub-of-the-world/
http://www.npr.org/2012/08/21/159531740/chinas-increased-investment-upsets-some-pakistanis
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2013/06/china-zambia-resources-imperialism.html
http://www.americanthinker.com/2005/06/chinas_manifest_destiny.html
Asia-Pacific Strategic Retrenchment: Political and Military Objectives
And it is not Abbottabad
The United States, Japan and China are projecting power and expanding maritime and mainland strategic defenses within the Asia-Pacific landscape for control of trade sea routes, strategic raw materials – hydrocarbons hubs and security of geographic provinces of strategic interest. The Asia-Pacific geopolitical scenario will be no easy task since Asian nations are interplaying Americans and Chinese, with the U.S. military providing security and China providing economic fringe benefits.

“As you look at the Asia Pacific, it’s about competition for resources, limited resources,“ It’s about making sure that everyone is able to sustain their own sovereignty and their interests” – US Chief of Army Staff General Raymond T Odierno- American Enterprise Institute

Pentagon and civilian leaders are rapidly increasing U.S. Army, Marines and U.S. Navy presence in China’s backyard. China’s naval fleet, the largest in Asia, which boasts 62 submarines, 13 destroyers and 65 frigates of active ships in the region. The U.S. military is increasing military footprints, boots on the ground with U.S. Marines, Joint Special Operations Command, military equipment depots and strategic intelligence and aerospace footprint with locales in Australia, Vietnam , Cambodia and the Philippines. Not only is the vast deployment of U.S. military armed forces concentrated toward China’s expansion, these forces will provide security for vested interests in the region – Japanese Ichthys Gas , Royal Dutch Shell , ExxonMobil, Forum Energy and trillions of dollars worth of oil found in Australian outback. Coincidence ?

The Philippines and U.S. military are considering the development of a territorial defense force orce capable of handling the Philippines’ strategic interest in the South China Sea, a high-ranking U.S. military – ABS

The proposed airfields and naval bases in the Philippines, a close U.S. ally, coincides with a resurgence of U.S. warships, planes and personnel in the region as Washington turns its attention to a newly assertive China – Reuters

China’s rising military power in the region is expanding well beyond it’s borders through stealth wars and operations , key transport and delivery of strategic resources and continued intrusion on nations economic exclusive zones. China’s aggressive activities in the region are necessary to nourish it’s regional appetite for power, influence and resources, diplomacy necessary to sustain the Chinese economic engine. Japans considerable dependence on imported energy resources (90%) transiting routes of Malacca – South and East China Sea is a high risk of engagement of military forces and energy firms with China over territorial disputes especially over oil and gas in the heavily disputed Okinawa and Diaoyu-Senkaku Islands .

Chinese state-run oil companies hope to develop seven new gas fields in the East China Sea, possibly siphoning gas from the seabed beneath waters claimed by Japan, a move that could further inflame tensions with Tokyo over the disputed area- Gulf Times

However, whichever side you fall on, the fact remains that CNOOC is China’s largest offshore exploration and production company which takes its mandate from Beijing to secure as much oil and gas as possible, seriously – Energy Tribune

U.S. and Philippines strategic architecture is operation acquisition prevention, AirSea Battle vs anti-access/anti-denial capabilities (A2/AD), military’s offshore control concept to ensure the flow of strategic assets to U.S. allies while blockading Chinese access, interdict import of strategic raw materials at vital sea gates and choke points and inhibit Chinese corporate offshore oil and natural gas energy and naval activities in the exclusive economic zones, mainly China’s 9-dash line territorial claim over Panatag, Parcel and Spratly Islands of the South China Sea.

The Philippines has deployed a fresh batch of marines and supplies to a shoal in the disputed South China Sea, where a Chinese warship and surveillance vessels appeared last month and triggered a new standoff in the strategic waters, the Philippine defense secretary said on June 19 – Asahi.

Military’s Northern Luzon Command (Nolcom) is shifting its operations from internal security to territorial defense in 2014, focusing on the Luzon coastlines amid disputes over marine boundaries in Southeast Asia, the new Nolcom chief – Inquirer

A decades-old territorial squabble over the South China Sea is entering a new and more contentious chapter, as claimant nations search deeper into disputed waters for energy supplies while building up their navies and military alliances with other nations, particularly with the United States – Reuters

The Philippines plans to relocate major air force and navy camps to a former US naval base north of Manila to gain faster access to waters being contested by China in the South China Sea- South China Morning Post

Strategic dialogue between the U.S., China and Japan over economic exclusive zones, oil and gas regions and military encounters over territorial disputes could easily ignite a South China Sea Flashpoint . With hardly any noise or accusations from pundits, the U.S. massive military and diplomatic buildup in the Asian Block is a counter-move toward China’s renminbi bloc and forestall the creation of multinational Asian block adopting the Yuan as a primary currency and the direct exchange of oil and gas for Yuans.

Beijing’s possible move to back the yuan with gold would not be meant as a strategic measure to strengthen the national currency and increase its attractiveness as an investment medium. Rather, it would be a flaunt aimed at demonstrating to the world (and to the USA in particular) that China is capable of taking the risks associated with a departure from the dollar standard – RBTH

China may soon start direct trading between the yuan and the Australian dollar, bypassing the U.S. dollar when exchanging the units, to take advantage of growing financial and trading ties between two nations – WSJ

High probability of a future small scale war over shrinking strategic resources.

When considering China’s A2/AD strategy, one popular theory is that China would go all in – launching massive saturation missile strikes on American and Japanese bases to gain the advantage and attain victory quickly – The Diplomat

The US-PH alliance is erecting an offensive/defensive perimeter in the Asia-Pacific to secure jump-off points for pre-emptive strike capabilities. The Pentagon is increasing the MEU to 2500 in Darwin, increasing rotational Naval and JSOC operations in the Philippines , shifting Marines from Japan to Guam which all could find themselves transiting the region in littoral combat ships as part of the Single Naval Strategy. Philippines is planning to relocate air and naval forces to Subic Bay to cut reaction time by fighter aircraft to contested South China Sea areas. Japan is revamping Self Defense Forces from a defensive position to first strike – amphibious island capturing abilities with military frontiers to counter Chinese intrusion and defend Japans East China Sea territories and energy resources. China is deploying naval operations west to shield Middle East oil routes.Chinese submarines loaded with nuclear missiles are on high alert as counteroffensive strategy to turn South China Sea into off limits zone. China’s military test firing of anti-satellite rockets capable of disrupting communications and the navigation of U.S. carrier strike groups. Pointed at Taiwan are Carrier Hunter anti-ship warheads intended to destroy the ships’ flight decks, launch catapults and control towers. China’s growing naval assertiveness by circumventing gaps in Japan’s Maritime Chokepoints and launching coastguard paramilitary vessels to keep pressure on Japan over disputed islands in the East China Sea.