JFK Assassination Paradigm Shift: Deaths of Witnesses Called to Testify
JFK Assassination Paradigm Shift: Deaths of Witnesses Called to Testify
Richard Charnin
July 18, 2013
This post will describe the methodology used to calculate mortality rates and probabilities of the deaths of witnesses whose testimony was sought in four JFK-related investigations. As such, it represents a paradigm shift in analyzing witness deaths. It is mathematical proof of a conspiracy – beyond any doubt. It closes the book on the academics, media and entertainment shills who, after 50 years of overwhelming evidence, continue to perpetuate the fairy tale presented by the Warren Commission.
Warren Commission (WC) apologists have offered tortured explanations to refute the relevance of “convenient deaths” by challenging the witness connection or cause of death. But it is an exercise in futility; individual witnesses are not the issue. The apologists are missing the forest for the trees. The few remaining WC defenders call the analysis of “convenient deaths” the ravings of conspiracy “buffs”.
An actuary engaged by London Sunday Times calculated 100,000 trillion to 1 odds that 18 material witnesses would die in the three years following the assassination, a clear proof of a conspiracy to eliminate witnesses. An HSCA statistician dismissed the calculation as invalid, claiming that it was impossible to determine a known universe of witnesses. But there was a defined universe of 800 material witnesses who were sought to testify in four JFK-related investigations (including HSCA) from 1964-77.
At least 55 of the 800 died under suspicious circumstances, 35 unnaturally (22 homicides,9 accidents,4 suicides) and 20 from suspiciously timed heart attacks and other illnesses. In 1963, the national homicide rate was 0.000062 (1 in 16,000). Just one homicide would normally be expected. The probability P of 22 homicides is 1.46E-25 (1 in 6 trillion trillion). But P must be lower than that. How many suicides, accidents and heart attacks were actually homicides? The ZERO probability is mathematical proof of a conspiracy.
The HSCA and “coincidence” theorists (CTs) are easily debunked by this fact: Witnesses called to testify at the Warren Commission, the Garrison/Shaw trial, Church Senate Intelligence hearings and HSCA were obviously relevant and connected to the assassination or they would never have been called in the first place. Given the known universe of witnesses who testified or were sought in the investigations, focusing on any particular death is a distraction. A serious analyst would seek to quantify the probability of deaths within a defined group during a given time period.
The JFK Calc spreadsheet includes 114 material JFK-related witnesses of whom 81 died unnaturally (homicide, accident, suicide,unknown). The other 33 “natural” deaths include 20 suspicious (induced?) heart attacks. Only 11 unnatural deaths would normally be expected in the 14 year period assuming the 0.000542 U.S. unnatural mortality rate. Of the 114, 94 are listed in Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination , a reference text of 1400+ suspects, witnesses, law enforcement officials and investigators.
The only relevant factors are the number of witnesses (N) called to testify, the number (n) who died, the time period (T) and the appropriate mortality rate (R). Given these factors, we have all the information we need to calculate E, the expected number of deaths: E = N * T * R. Having E and n, we can easily calculate the probability P of n or more deaths in T years. Typically, P is 1 in trillions, depending on the witness group under consideration.
The Poisson formula calculates the probability of n deaths when E are expected:
P(n) = E^n * exp(-E) / n!
The spreadsheet function for exactly n deaths is easy to use:
P(n) = Poisson (n,E,false)
The probability of at least n deaths is 1 – the cumulative probability of 1 to n-1 deaths:
P(>n-1) = 1- Poisson (n-1,E,true)
Sixteen material witnesses died in 1964 (during the Warren Commission). Another 22 died in 1977-1978 (during the HSCA investigation). Timing is everything.
The Warren Commission
According to the CIA, 418 witnesses testified in person and 134 others by affidavit (total N=552). At least n=18 died unnaturally in the T=14 years from 1964-1977, a 0.000164 weighted average unnatural mortality rate. Given 552 witnesses, just 1 or 2 unnatural deaths would be expected:
E = 1.26 = 552*14*0.000164
The Poisson spreadsheet function calculates the probability P of at least n=18 unnatural deaths.
P = 1 – Poisson (n-1, E, true)
P = 1 – Poisson (17, 1.26, true) = 3.0E-15
P = 1 in 333 trillion
In 1963, the annual national homicide rate was 6 per 100,000 (0.000062), a 1 in 16,000 probability. Based on the rate, we would expect zero or one homicide among the 552 Warren Commission witnesses from 1964-1977. There were 10.
E = 0.48 = 552*14*0.000062
The probability of at least 10 homicides is:
P = 1 – Poisson (n-1, E, true)
P = 1 – Poisson (9, 0.48, true)= 1.14E-10
P = 1 in 9 billion
Four Investigations
The 552 Warren Commission witnesses are a subset of an estimated 800 who were sought to testify in four investigations: WC, Garrison/Shaw Trial, Church Senate and the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA).
Of the 800, 55 are included in the JFK Calc (114 witness) database, 28 in the WC and 27 in the three investigations that followed. There is no question that the WC witnesses are relevant; after all, they all testified. But virtually all of the other 27 called in the three investigations died just prior to their scheduled testimony. Over the 14 year period from 1964-77, 35 of the 55 witness deaths were unnatural, including 22 homicides.
For example, David Ferrie supposedly committed suicide a few days before he was scheduled to testify before a grand jury at the Clay Shaw trial in 1967. Sam Giancana was murdered before he had a chance to testify at the Church Senate hearings in 1975. George de Morenschildt supposedly shot himself the day he was notified of his interview by the HSCA. Seven (7) top FBI officials died within a six month period in 1977 prior to their scheduled testimony at the HSCA . And there were many more.
Given 800 witnesses called to testify, the probability of…
- at least 55 total deaths (0.001182 weighted rate) is
P = 1- Poisson(54,13.24,true) = 3.33E-16 (1 in 3000 trillion)
- 35 unnatural deaths(0.000142 weighted rate) is
P = Poisson(35,1.59,false) = 2.31E-34 (ZERO)
- 22 homicides (0.000062 rate) is
P = Poisson(22,0.69,false) = 1.46E-25 (ZERO)
Unweighted and Weighted Unnatural Mortality Rates
The U.S. unnatural mortality rate (0.000542) is the sum of the individual rates. Assuming this rate, approximately 11 unnatural deaths would be expected in a group of 1400 over 14 years. But there were 81 deaths. The probability is:
P = Poisson (81, 10.62, false) = 5.62E-43 (ZERO)
Nationally, the 0.000359 accident rate comprised 66% of unnatural deaths, compared to 11% for the 0.000062 homicide rate. But since 46 of 81 (56.8%) JFK witness unnatural deaths were homicides, we need the JFK-weighted rate to calculate probabilities. The weighted rate is the sum-product of unnatural rates and corresponding deaths:
R = 0.000148 = (46*0.000062 + 8*0.000107 + 23*0.000359 + 4* 0.000014)/81
E = 2.91 = 1400*14*0.000148
P = Poisson (81, 2.91, false) = 3.42E-85 (ZERO)
The probability of 114 total deaths (81 unnatural and 33 natural) among 1400 witnesses requires mortality rates for heart attacks and other illnesses.
Total Deaths: Unweighted Probability
E = 41.98 = 1400*14*0.002142
P = Poisson (114, 41.98, false) = 2.47E-20 (ZERO)
Total Deaths: Witness Weighted Probability
E = 6.18 = 1400*14*0.000315
P = Poisson (114, 6.18, false) = 1.13E-99 (ZERO)
Richard Charnin
July 18, 2013
This post will describe the methodology used to calculate mortality rates and probabilities of the deaths of witnesses whose testimony was sought in four JFK-related investigations. As such, it represents a paradigm shift in analyzing witness deaths. It is mathematical proof of a conspiracy – beyond any doubt. It closes the book on the academics, media and entertainment shills who, after 50 years of overwhelming evidence, continue to perpetuate the fairy tale presented by the Warren Commission.
Warren Commission (WC) apologists have offered tortured explanations to refute the relevance of “convenient deaths” by challenging the witness connection or cause of death. But it is an exercise in futility; individual witnesses are not the issue. The apologists are missing the forest for the trees. The few remaining WC defenders call the analysis of “convenient deaths” the ravings of conspiracy “buffs”.
An actuary engaged by London Sunday Times calculated 100,000 trillion to 1 odds that 18 material witnesses would die in the three years following the assassination, a clear proof of a conspiracy to eliminate witnesses. An HSCA statistician dismissed the calculation as invalid, claiming that it was impossible to determine a known universe of witnesses. But there was a defined universe of 800 material witnesses who were sought to testify in four JFK-related investigations (including HSCA) from 1964-77.
At least 55 of the 800 died under suspicious circumstances, 35 unnaturally (22 homicides,9 accidents,4 suicides) and 20 from suspiciously timed heart attacks and other illnesses. In 1963, the national homicide rate was 0.000062 (1 in 16,000). Just one homicide would normally be expected. The probability P of 22 homicides is 1.46E-25 (1 in 6 trillion trillion). But P must be lower than that. How many suicides, accidents and heart attacks were actually homicides? The ZERO probability is mathematical proof of a conspiracy.
The HSCA and “coincidence” theorists (CTs) are easily debunked by this fact: Witnesses called to testify at the Warren Commission, the Garrison/Shaw trial, Church Senate Intelligence hearings and HSCA were obviously relevant and connected to the assassination or they would never have been called in the first place. Given the known universe of witnesses who testified or were sought in the investigations, focusing on any particular death is a distraction. A serious analyst would seek to quantify the probability of deaths within a defined group during a given time period.
The JFK Calc spreadsheet includes 114 material JFK-related witnesses of whom 81 died unnaturally (homicide, accident, suicide,unknown). The other 33 “natural” deaths include 20 suspicious (induced?) heart attacks. Only 11 unnatural deaths would normally be expected in the 14 year period assuming the 0.000542 U.S. unnatural mortality rate. Of the 114, 94 are listed in Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination , a reference text of 1400+ suspects, witnesses, law enforcement officials and investigators.
The only relevant factors are the number of witnesses (N) called to testify, the number (n) who died, the time period (T) and the appropriate mortality rate (R). Given these factors, we have all the information we need to calculate E, the expected number of deaths: E = N * T * R. Having E and n, we can easily calculate the probability P of n or more deaths in T years. Typically, P is 1 in trillions, depending on the witness group under consideration.
The Poisson formula calculates the probability of n deaths when E are expected:
P(n) = E^n * exp(-E) / n!
The spreadsheet function for exactly n deaths is easy to use:
P(n) = Poisson (n,E,false)
The probability of at least n deaths is 1 – the cumulative probability of 1 to n-1 deaths:
P(>n-1) = 1- Poisson (n-1,E,true)
Sixteen material witnesses died in 1964 (during the Warren Commission). Another 22 died in 1977-1978 (during the HSCA investigation). Timing is everything.
The Warren Commission
According to the CIA, 418 witnesses testified in person and 134 others by affidavit (total N=552). At least n=18 died unnaturally in the T=14 years from 1964-1977, a 0.000164 weighted average unnatural mortality rate. Given 552 witnesses, just 1 or 2 unnatural deaths would be expected:
E = 1.26 = 552*14*0.000164
The Poisson spreadsheet function calculates the probability P of at least n=18 unnatural deaths.
P = 1 – Poisson (n-1, E, true)
P = 1 – Poisson (17, 1.26, true) = 3.0E-15
P = 1 in 333 trillion
In 1963, the annual national homicide rate was 6 per 100,000 (0.000062), a 1 in 16,000 probability. Based on the rate, we would expect zero or one homicide among the 552 Warren Commission witnesses from 1964-1977. There were 10.
E = 0.48 = 552*14*0.000062
The probability of at least 10 homicides is:
P = 1 – Poisson (n-1, E, true)
P = 1 – Poisson (9, 0.48, true)= 1.14E-10
P = 1 in 9 billion
Four Investigations
The 552 Warren Commission witnesses are a subset of an estimated 800 who were sought to testify in four investigations: WC, Garrison/Shaw Trial, Church Senate and the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA).
Of the 800, 55 are included in the JFK Calc (114 witness) database, 28 in the WC and 27 in the three investigations that followed. There is no question that the WC witnesses are relevant; after all, they all testified. But virtually all of the other 27 called in the three investigations died just prior to their scheduled testimony. Over the 14 year period from 1964-77, 35 of the 55 witness deaths were unnatural, including 22 homicides.
For example, David Ferrie supposedly committed suicide a few days before he was scheduled to testify before a grand jury at the Clay Shaw trial in 1967. Sam Giancana was murdered before he had a chance to testify at the Church Senate hearings in 1975. George de Morenschildt supposedly shot himself the day he was notified of his interview by the HSCA. Seven (7) top FBI officials died within a six month period in 1977 prior to their scheduled testimony at the HSCA . And there were many more.
Given 800 witnesses called to testify, the probability of…
- at least 55 total deaths (0.001182 weighted rate) is
P = 1- Poisson(54,13.24,true) = 3.33E-16 (1 in 3000 trillion)
- 35 unnatural deaths(0.000142 weighted rate) is
P = Poisson(35,1.59,false) = 2.31E-34 (ZERO)
- 22 homicides (0.000062 rate) is
P = Poisson(22,0.69,false) = 1.46E-25 (ZERO)
Rate....Investigation.......T..N...n...E....Prob
0.000677 Warren Commission.14 552 28 5.23 2.79E-12
0.000476 Garrison/Church....8 145 17 0.55 6.74E-20
0.000886 House Select.......2 103 21 0.18 5.01E-36
0.001182 Total (55=66-11)..14 800 55 13.24 3.33E-16
0.000142 35 unnatural......14 800 35 1.59 2.31E-34
0.000062 22 Homicides......14 800 22 0.69 1.46E-25
E-12 = 1 in a trillion; E-24= 1 in a trillion^2; E-36 = 1 in a trillion^3
Unweighted and Weighted Unnatural Mortality Rates
The U.S. unnatural mortality rate (0.000542) is the sum of the individual rates. Assuming this rate, approximately 11 unnatural deaths would be expected in a group of 1400 over 14 years. But there were 81 deaths. The probability is:
P = Poisson (81, 10.62, false) = 5.62E-43 (ZERO)
Nationally, the 0.000359 accident rate comprised 66% of unnatural deaths, compared to 11% for the 0.000062 homicide rate. But since 46 of 81 (56.8%) JFK witness unnatural deaths were homicides, we need the JFK-weighted rate to calculate probabilities. The weighted rate is the sum-product of unnatural rates and corresponding deaths:
R = 0.000148 = (46*0.000062 + 8*0.000107 + 23*0.000359 + 4* 0.000014)/81
E = 2.91 = 1400*14*0.000148
P = Poisson (81, 2.91, false) = 3.42E-85 (ZERO)
The probability of 114 total deaths (81 unnatural and 33 natural) among 1400 witnesses requires mortality rates for heart attacks and other illnesses.
Total Deaths: Unweighted Probability
E = 41.98 = 1400*14*0.002142
P = Poisson (114, 41.98, false) = 2.47E-20 (ZERO)
Total Deaths: Witness Weighted Probability
E = 6.18 = 1400*14*0.000315
P = Poisson (114, 6.18, false) = 1.13E-99 (ZERO)
Unnatural Mortality Rates
Cause....Rate..... Deaths (JFK witness vs. U.S. share of unnatural deaths)
Homicide 0.000062 46 (56.8% vs. 11.4%)
Suicide. 0.000107 8 (9.9% vs. 19.7%)
Accident 0.000359 23 (28.4% vs. 66.2%)
Unknown. 0.000014 4 (4.9% vs. 2.6%)
Total... 0.000542 81 U.S. unweighted (10.6 expected, Prob= ZERO
JFK Witness 0.000148 81 weighted rate
“Who's Who” 0.000151 66 weighted rate
Natural Mortality Rates
Cause...........Rate....Deaths
illness........ 0.000300 6
heart attack... 0.001000 20
other.......... 0.000300 7
Total...........0.001600 33
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